We've tried the 'get something great as a result of spin-offs' route before. It disappoints every time. Why are people advocating it again with a human 'flags and footprints' Mars mission? Why don't we instead direct resources towards an inspiring goal which delivers something concrete?
Given the choice, I would much rather today have a permanent LEO infrastructure of a dozen privately funded Skylabs (from those same tried-and-true Saturn V rocket parts) and cis-lunar tugs rather than the 'spin off' soon-to-be-retired Goldberg contraption of Shuttle.
As to proving if the same technologies or products would exist without Apollo - that's just stupid and pointless. How about you try to prove everything would have turned out the same had we not gone to the moon? Has the private sector developed time machines that I'm not aware of?
The hope for spin-offs is a really horrible justification for a program. If you want to do something specific (say, establish a permanent human presence in space) why not do it direct instead of hope it results from a spin-off of something else?
I was never originally talking about corporate spinoffs - I was talking about raw technology, basic science, fundamental ideas and breakthroughs that Apollo helped develop. That got derailed nicely when I happened to provide a link to NASA's corporate spinoff page under the assumption that a reasonable person would consider that commercial products are simply applications of technologies - not a representative list of them! Now you've decided that I meant to say Apollo directly started thousands of companies?!
There were no breakthroughs in basic science, fundamental ideas or raw technology which resulted from Apollo which would not have otherwise been achieved by a bit (not billions of dollars) of direct research in the fields of interest. You've not been able to identify a dozen (or even one!) of those advances you're so sure about.
Romantic and astounding as it was, Apollo was a money-sink which delivered us nothing but memories. It was an awesome 'night on the town' and we would have done better by constructing permanent space infrastructure instead.
Advances in various fields such as Integrated Electronics, Error-Correcting Codes, Communication Systems, Control Systems (etc etc etc) would have happened without the Apollo program, but the Apollo program was a major boost.
Sure, manned space flight might be a bad investment, but when half a million people are working towards the same goal then enormous momentum is created. This momentum allowed and forced various fields of technology to develop at a faster rate.
Please allow me to stress one point: I am against income taxes and big government. As much as I like the Apollo program, it was financed by the taxpayers who did not necessarily approve of it. In any case, of all the projects the U.S. government launched, the Apollo program was probably (one of) the most worthwhile...