US Army Studying Replacing Thousands of Grunts with Robots
defensenews.com
defensenews.com
Soldiers are powered by eating organics, potentially very light weight organics rehydrated with locally available water. They can carry several days worth of rations and be operationally effective for nearly 24/7 of those days.
There is no robot on the planet yet which has a battery that will last on 'standby' for multiple days, allow it to engage in active service for several hours each of those days. The weight kills you. It slows you down.
Two technologies "win" in the military space. Just enough tech and weight to increase down range lethality over the existing system, and tech which doesn't have to be carried so can be called in remotely.
For the purposes of a thought experiment, consider the false dichotomy of "America" and "NotAmerica" as two hypothetical opposing forces, where America has nukes and killer robots and NotAmerica has only nukes.
If you find yourself living in NotAmerica, your motivation to pre-emptively nuke America, simply to avoid the threat of a horrific death dispensed by killer robots, presents itself as an absurdly simple choice. Even if it means suicide.
The discussion referenced by Defense News though is policy around the deployment of Squad and Battalion level forces which are typically engaged in situations where either the nation-state isn't the target (say Somali pirates, of Afghan warlords), and/or the goal is incompatible with mass destruction.
Your hypothetical suicide inference leaves out the choice of compliance. One could look at a place like NotAmerica' where no one is at risk of horrific death due to killer robots, versus NotAmerica where death by remote action is a more common occurrence, and look at what is different between the two places. In all the theaters of the world today it's pretty clear what action would completely remove that threat of horrific death. (hint: it isn't going to America and blowing yourself up.)
The reason stock markets have black swans is because legal transactions can never account for illegal activity. Sure, you can buy replacement insurance against theft, but you cannot actually build theft into an accounting model. Stock markets, as social laboratories of economic exchange, will always have crashes because there are black markets that operate behind them in secrecy. Certain companies might befall "unfortunate accidents" and whoopsie daisy! How did that happen?
Consider the question: How interested are you in being arrested and imprisoned by a robotic civilian police officer?
Basically exactly the same as I'm interested in being arrested and imprisoned by a meat-cop.
And the robocop might win just based on the fact that he's less likely to have a "respect mah authoritai" chip on his shoulder that results in me being tazed or shot for no good reason.
Concerning the film "Robocop", it was interesting that you discover most of his character traits after he has been transformed into a cyborg, and my opinion is that he was a brutal copper.
This is about power differential. Imbalances of power contribute to instability. The kinds of power discussed in this equation are vast, and not to be trifled with. Errors made with the toys of modern warfare can be unforgiving to the point that submarine personnel might be the only survivors.
When you scale up conflict beyond the individual concept of arrest and imprisonment, there is a volatility to open warfare that is whithering, when compared to civil society. If you're that eager to thwart some cops in their activities, then vote a draft into law, advocate mandatory military service and then go rob a bank and shoot some tellers while you're at it. I dare you.
Well, yes. But that's primarily because I am not currently confident in the law.
A robotic crime wave, or a human crime wave?
A robotic miscarriage of justice, or a human miscarriage of justice?
I think, in both situations, the two are not equivalent, and the robotic version is not only worse, but carries the potential of total devastation. But maybe I'm chicken little.
What makes you think that a robot couldn't be programmed to show malice, racism or cruelty?
NB I am not implying that the US would actually do this, just questioning whether there are really any fundamental barriers stopping the creation of machines with such malign goals.
Erm, this is why nuclear deterrents work.
The part that piqued my interest most is that weight is a huge factor in efficiency for the military (kind of surprised I didn't think of that before).
By replacing 25% of a brigade with robots, the army could substantially reduce weight without a commensurate decrease in battlefield effectiveness. This would lower fuel costs, increase combat readiness (fewer people to drill) and make time-to-battlefield far shorter.
I would think that in the tooth-to-tail equation, robots have a substantial place at both sides. As the saying goes, “Amateurs think about tactics, but professionals think about logistics.” (General Robert H. Barrow, USMC) and making the logistics chain more effective could translate into an overwhelming advantage.
If you replace 25% of brigade with robots, you will need to add 2-3% of personnel minimum for maintenance of those robots. And that is before spare parts and supplies. And you definitely need to train people to work together with robots, so I think drilling time will actually go up.
So while, there will be reduction and weight and potentially highly increased performance, I do not think it will be pronounced in first few generations.
Actually, they do need those - but most likely have significantly lower maintenance/upkeep costs than the average soldier. Still a big savings.
Good point about drilling time. Maybe less man-hours in drilling overall, but more per head?
It’s hard to see such a radical change to the makeup of the brigage combat team as anything else than a budget move, borne out of the necessity of cutting the personnel costs that eat up almost half of the service’s total budget.
Cone used the Navy as an example of what the Army is trying to do.
“When you see the success, frankly, that the Navy has had in terms of lowering the numbers of people on ships, are there functions in the brigade that we could automate — robots or manned/unmanned teaming — and lower the number of people that are involved given the fact that people are our major cost,” he said.
If the army goes down this route, it will still have a high cost of personnel. It will require engineers and programmers to build and maintain these systems, and many of these personnel will be required to work on the front line.
Well, a ship has a decent power supply. The Nimitz run on nuclear reactors that keep them going for months. A factor in their success is their sheer size, boasting a displacement of 92,000 tons.
What's the upside of being "on the side" of an entity of even less hesitation of engaging in aggressive warfare? That's like saying making it easier to beat up kids and take their lunch money is a plus, as long as you're the one doing it - and that's the mildest example I could think of, to keep this as nice and friendly as possible.
How long will it take until other major and minor powers have them, too? Then that advantage shrinks or even disappears, yet the robots remain. How long until they get turned on citizens? What leg would you have to stand on, morally, if you justify wars of aggression by (thinking you're) profiting from them? If it was profitable to crush dissent with robots, none.
This idea of "sides" is very flawed, too. Are US citizens on the side of those who lead them into wars, or do these wars more and more mean profit to a very small subset to them, and huge costs to the rest? Here's a thought, if you post on HN, you're by definition not part of the group who would stand to gain by such things. HN may represent a elite in comparison with other groups, but in comparison with actual elites it still represents peons.
Last, but not least: what if you're "on the side of humans", and don't buy into the whole nationality stuff in the first place?
>What's the upside of being "on the side" of an entity of even less hesitation of engaging in aggressive warfare?
It would be preferable not to engage in aggressive warfare. But it's also preferable not to be the one who ends up dead from it.
>That's like saying making it easier to beat up kids and take their lunch money is a plus, as long as you're the one doing it - and that's the mildest example I could think of, to keep this as nice and friendly as possible.
You're correct. That's exactly what I think it's like. It's not fair and it's not just.
>This idea of "sides" is very flawed, too. Are US citizens on the side of those who lead them into wars, or do these wars more and more mean profit to a very small subset to them, and huge costs to the rest?
Americans are by no means the only militaristic nationalists around. And this is a complex question. But it's worth pointing out that those two things are not mutually exclusive.
>what if you're "on the side of humans", and don't buy into the whole nationality stuff in the first place?
If you're born into a nation, and into the systems which brought it into being, and you derive benefits from it - food, education, language, culture - then I believe you are to a degree a paricipant in or benefactor of the crimes which made those benefits possible. They were done on your behalf whether you like it or not. "Gain" from warfare can be a subtle thing, and can be doled out across generations, even millennia.
I think you can put yourself beyond nationalism if you wish, and doing so is understandable in a post-Internet age. But I don't believe that puts you above it. You are a product of the industries of slavery, barbarism, greed and genocide, as am I, as is every human being. Before nations, people slaughtered one another in the name of their tribe, or their clan, or their family, or gods. We are all of us standing atop a pile of bones simply by virtue of birth... it's just that some piles are bigger than others.
> It would be preferable not to engage in aggressive warfare. But it's also preferable not to be the one who ends up dead from it.
So far, since the end of the cold war, the US is waging war on much weaker enemies, not any who pose an actual threat to its existence. And I think even conquering any and all potential threats will inevitably mean turning onto its own citizens, too, I believe. I mean, even more so than that is already the case.
And China for example will rise either way, a military defense against aggression might be unrealistic; however, there is also culture, and being worth more as an ally than a conquered territory. More importantly, there is democracy; not yet in China, heck, not yet hardly anywhere, but in theory. And people in general don't like war, it's the elites that use them as cannonfodders and bill payers in them who do. Not being hateworthy seems less risky than trying to win all the time and constantly increasing the stakes. But sadly I think the US is very used to being aggressive, and assumes everybody else is, too, that only American power keeps them in check. I don't think this is true.
> Americans are by no means the only militaristic nationalists around
Of course they're not, but we're talking about the US military on an american website. And the US, at least for the time being, is the top dog. The path the US takes is very important to me because of that, I do think it trickles down to everybody else to a degree, or at least makes it harder to achieve some progress and sanity in other countries.
> it's worth pointing out that those two things are not mutually exclusive.
I disagree, though I guess it's hard to know for sure, because how would we measure it? Still, I think when a nation wages war, the citizens get to shoulder all the costs (or debt, in the case of the US), but they don't get a comparable share in the profits. And I don't think that share outweighs the costs to them, either.
> If you're born into a nation, and into the systems which brought it into being, and you derive benefits from it - food, education, language, culture - then I believe you are to a degree a paricipant in or benefactor of the crimes which made those benefits possible. They were done on your behalf whether you like it or not.
Of course. But I also derive a lot of benefit of things people in general are doing. By "not buying into nations" I meant I don't feel pride in "my" country, just like I don't feel pride in what another right-hander, or male, or member of any other group I could be said to "belong to", is doing. War does live off this spectator sports mentality, and I just don't feel it. It has nothing to do with the internet, at least for me, though I hope it can help that process along. Nations are a way to organize things on a certain scale, but no more. They are not holy or special, they are arbitrary.
> I think you can put yourself beyond nationalism if you wish, and doing so is understandable in a post-Internet age. But I don't believe that puts you above it. You are a product of the industries of slavery, barbarism, greed and genocide, as am I, as is every human being. Before nations, people slaughtered one another in the name of their tribe, or their clan, or their family, or gods. We are all of us standing atop a pile of bones simply by virtue of birth... it's just that some piles are bigger than others.
Sure, but I think we have long since reached a point where the drawbacks of constant warfare and greed are bigger than the benefits of co-operation, though I can not really prove it. One thing is true for sure though, co-operation is also as old as history; if parents and children fought each other over food, we wouldn't exist. We're not just products of exploitation and slaughter, not by a long shot. And whatever put us here, now we are here: with an ability to think and make choices.
I actually don't think humans always slaughtered each other whenever they could and derived some benefit from it. That is, scarcity makes us do that, and nowadays I feel this scarcity is also artificially created, even more so going forward. Greed also creates scarcity: if one is greedy enough, they will not ever be satisfied, even ruling the whole universe. That way lies at best despair, at worst disaster - so why not look for a better way to spend the time until the heat death? Yes, I'm an idealist. I believe in striving for something worthwhile more than adapting myself to what I found, and leaving it behind the way I found it.
I like to believe this is true:
[Humans] have been genetically programmed through hunting behavior: cooperation and sharing. Cooperation between members of the same band was a practical necessity for most hunting societies; so was the sharing of food. Since meat is perishable in most climates except that of the Arctic, it could not be preserved. Luck in hunting was not equally divided among all hunters; hence the practical outcome was that those who had luck today would share their food with those who would be lucky tomorrow. Assuming hunting behavior led to genetic changes, the conclusion would be that modern man has an innate impulse for cooperation and sharing, rather than for killing and cruelty.
Erich Fromm, "The Anatomy of Human Destructiveness"
Unless there were a whole lot of articles on robots working outside of rather specialized situations like defusing bombs (where I think a lot of the operation involve remote control activity, not autonomous activity).
The Army probably has all sorts of problems because they weren't prepared for urban warfare in 2001, and they got prepared by welding armor to everything that they have. Humvees and trucks with an extra ton of armor lose at least that much cargo capacity.
Shrinking brigade sizes lets you have 12 divisions in a 10 division army (to paraphrase former Gen. Shinseki - the guy who called what would happen in Iraq perfectly and got forced out for it) - the real question is whether robotics actually let you act that way.
The only way I can really see it working would be if we're talking about Boston Dynamics types things that are armed in some way. You could certainly pair every soldier with an armed ammo-mule bot and achieve some gains in firepower (a lot of small unit tactics is less about precise shooting then simply blanketing a given area with rounds).
Makes you wonder especially in the 21st century urban combat where someone on some rooftop out of view (or across the world) could exploit/take over such machines and that force multiplier will starting to not look like one. But also seeing the trend of armies facing off people of the general populace (regardless of their "enemy combatant" status) and not other standing armies in general, I wouldn't say I'm bothered by the studies/movement in this direction, I might even welcome it.
[0]: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=drones+are+hackable
[1]: http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/10/drone-virus-kept-qui...
[2]: http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/19/aerial-drones-vulne...