Countries Where Windows Phone Outsells The iPhone
forbes.com
forbes.com
I had spoken to Horace Dediu of Asymco in December for a story on what options Microsoft and Nokia had before them, and here are some of the relevant parts he told me (the article itself doesn't seem to have been put online at Forbes India, who I used to write for but no longer do):
>> Coming to the present, the biggest problem that Microsoft and Nokia will face is that of timing. Specifically, at what stage are we when it comes to global penetration of smartphones?
>> Today now that the market is over 1 billion users and going to very rapidly saturate, the challenge for Microsoft is their assumption of wanting to keep on trying hoping to succeed one day. It's hard to believe that after so many tries and so much saturation, they can succeed. Worse, their strategies are symmetric, meaning they compete against an Apple or an Android by claiming their Lumia devices are better.
>> If Microsoft and Nokia can pivot and become a low-end competitor then there may be an opportunity still available in emerging markets. But instead they’re pouring tremendous resources into the US and Europe saying Lumia is better. That will fail. The door for Windows Phone is closing not because of Apple and iOS but because of Google and Android. Nokia, the bulk of whose phome portfolio was in the mid-market, was defeated by Android. I could argue, with difficulty, that they can still get into the late stage market but I haven’t seen a message from them indicating that. They simply aren't humble enough to see that market as their core, but still see their platform as superior to all others.
Are there not dimensions beyond price and volume still left to tap into the smartphone market?
Possibly. But I've personally seen no evidence Windows Phone has that figured.
There are things that iPhone and Apple products still do better than their Android counterparts. For example, you still can't do screen mirroring from your android device to a Chromecast. Meanwhile, AppleTV works like a charm.
But, when it comes to SmartPhones independently, I'm of the opinion that marketing is the only thing keeping iPhone alive. The list of things you get for free with Android that you can't get with the iPhone even if you paid for them are growing longer and longer... Off the top of my head, here are things I've heard from friends who recently switched:
Woa, how did I ever go without Widgets!
Swyping is supported by default, _and_ I can change the default keyboard?!
I can charge my phone with any USB cable, _and_ upgrade my battery?!
You don't _have_ to use iTunes for everything?! ...
Also, as an example use case, how else do you put music on your iDevices? I'm under the impression that you have to use iTunes.
That's about as head to head as it gets.
So I doubt Microsoft will have any chance at that market either. Android pours 1.5 million new units into the market every day, or about 500 million per year, and that's before these mainstream "good enough" $50 smartphones arrive, which I think will help Android double its unit grow rate within 12-18 months. Everything else will get drowned out.
They compete with both. Iphone does not sell because it sucks outside of US. It is locked down severely restricted platform. It does not even have USB Mass Storage!
But comparing an entire ecosystem of phones (with one of the biggest sellers being the $100 Nokia 520) with iPhones limited range, is silly. Try again when Apple release a true current gen budget smartphone perhaps. I've never understood why we as consumers care about this stuff -- they're businesses for christs sake, and they make billions of dollars of us. Why do we care if one big business does better than their competitors? Why do we defend them? :/
If Windows Phone is gaining ground in markets you care about, you'd best care about it, regardless of the specific hardware being talked about. We're comparing ecosystems here, not hardware. We can compare "Windows Phone Phones vs iOS phones" if that makes you feel more comfortable.
Now there are some arguments to be made as to why consumers would care as well, but in my experience those arguments might hold true for people like us on HN but not for your average commenter on The Verge (for example).
Consider, for example, if Chile becomes dominated by the Windows Phone. All your good useful local apps - your local versions of Yelps, Zagats, OpenTables, etc - are going to go Windows Phone first. The services that matter most in the community you're in are going to go where the marketshare is - and as an iPhone user, you might be left waiting to catch up.
Speak for yourself, I develop for the web.
1) Everyone prefers to be on the winning or "proven-right" side. It's hard to be happy with your otherwise decent Blackberry if your peers increasingly don't use it, know anything about it, or disparage it.
2) There is also a long-term self-interested component that seeks more than simply trying to fit in. It goes like this - the more cool your chosen device/platform/game is the more users it attracts, the more users it attracts the more money is flowing through the system, and ultimately more money means more human resources are spent on patching/re-releasing your favorite product so that it can be improved and stay reliable in the long-term. And if it's a proprietary messaging system or a multiplayer game, having more users in the system is in itself also a boon to the end-user experience.
It's not only about the big apps. The 'download app from' in advertisement footers are only referring to the App Store and Google Play. By choosing an iPhone or an Android consumers know for sure that they are able to download and use any app, not just the big ones.
The markets that Windows outsell iPhone are the markets where iPhone has less than 10% market share and where people need cheaper phones. These are not the markets that are attractive to developers (Revenue/user is much lower than developed countries) and hence Windows will not see developer mindshare in near future.
Notice other than Nokia Home base (Finland), Windows does not outsell Android anywhere else.
The author tries to anticipate this with:
"As such, it is possible for cynics to argue Windows Phone is gaining in markets where the iPhone doesn’t compete and making little headway where it does. Except this isn’t true either.
Windows Phone Is Fast Becoming A Hit In Europe"
But this is also bollocks. There are people everywhere that buy $200 phones, it might be only 20% in the US and 30% in Europe (where many countries don't use subsidies) instead of the 80%+ you might see in Mexico or Thailand but that doesn't mean these people are choosing WP's over iPhones.
I have to say that I've been impressed with the phone since I started using one for development. The display, camera and interfaces feel smooth and fun to use.
It's easy to bash Microsoft and dismiss its products altogether, but it's important to give them a shot, if only to avoid the mistake of limiting ourselves to the Apple / Google technology that is most prevalent.
Microsoft illegally killed off most desktop competition when they forced hardware vendors to pay for DOS on every PC they shipped, regardless of which OS they shipped.
Personally, I think we're better off with Google taking the place of Microsoft in the mobile space.
Apple and Google are the lobsters and the Steven Spielbergs of the technology world, so to speak: they're highly respected, rich and popular. In a way, there's nothing wrong with that: I use a Macbook, Gmail, etc., because I think they're very well made.
My argument isn't that the software industry should jump into bed with Microsoft; I'm saying that trying technologies like the Windows Phone is vital to our professional development as software engineers.
If you consider yourself a creator in any given field, you can't keep up without at least dabbling with different and sometimes lesser appreciated products. New ideas often emerge when we deviate from standard tools and practices.
It is baffling to me that some people on HN have such strong resistance to trying other platforms, or are so defensive of their favoured platform.
I assume that all software sucks, all hardware sucks, and there are only minor variations in levels of suckage for experienced users.
It's weird that many people on HN will have no experience with home computers of the 80s era, or different OSs.
It is a too-easy prediction that these numbers won't hold up as both upper-tier Android OEMs and deep-discount Chinese OEMs invade every remaining corner of the global handset market.
Interestingly, Microsoft hasn't bought the Nokia brand for smart phones so once the sale goes through all new phones will no longer be branded Nokia. And after as short period of time Nokia will be able to licence the name to some unpronouncable-to-westerners company from China and Nokia Androids will be on the market to compete with Microsoft Lumias.
I'd love to know if Microsoft bought the distribution network. I don't know if it's technically part of Nokia or just a network of partner companies.
Microsoft does own Nokia's distribution network, and even the factories that make Series 30 handsets, and all the other odd stuff. Another headache for the next Microsoft CEO.
My bet is that Nokia will get back in to the handset business, and possibly other consumer electronics, once their non-competition agreement expires. Nokia owns some of Jolla, and most of Jolla's employees are formerly Nokia people. I think Jolla already uses Nokia's maps and media ecosystems.
I was under the impression that Apple didn't bother to market to any of the markets listed in that article because they aren't THE LARGEST AND RICHEST MARKETS IN THE WORLD.
It took them over 3 years to release ANY version of an iphone in finland (one of the listed nations in the article): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_iPhone#European_...
U.S.A. Release: June 28, 2007
Finland Release: September 30, 2010
It took them over a year to get to Greece, etc...
People buy what's available and then stick to what they know, generally.
I am not surprised by the findings of this article.
You're reading the Wikipedia article wrong. The iPhone was released in Finland in 2008 when the 3G model came out, and that's stated in the article as well.
The primary reason for not releasing the original iPhone in European markets was the lack of 3G. A 2G-only smartphone would have been a hard sell in European markets back in 2007-08 when 3G was already widely deployed and used.
Nokia has long enjoyed very good opinion and popularity in Poland -- as the go-to vendor, thanks to decently-priced, user-friendly and rugged phones. The second-hand market is huge, spare parts and accessories abound and experienced repair shops common.
Having said that, a few of my friends have gotten Windows Phone and all of them were disappointed, most of them returned them back in exchange for anything Android. Common complain was OS being disappointing for daily use, and app selection was lacking.
tl;dr
In Poland Windows Phone may outsell iPhones, but it still remains niche -- and you should also subtract frequent returns to get actual user base.
My HN mobile client works fine on WP8/IE, but so many hacks required to work as an HTML5 WP8 app.
My best guess would be people upgrading from a feature phone to a smartphone for the first time. They might buy a really low end Windows phone because of Nokia (they dominated the market for ages) but I have never seen a high end one here in the wild.
Shame really, back in the pre-smartphone days I always had a Nokia as they made the best hardware by far. Nokia phones with CyanogenMod would have been a perfect combination.