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Comment by phaus | Hacker News Reader

>You don't need millions to make technology bets.

To become a household name as a genius capable of predicting the future you most certainly do.

>I'll tell you why. Things aren't so obvious when you have some skin in the game.

I'll tell you the real reason why: I make enough money to cover my living expenses, and that's about it. I am right about technology most of the time, but I don't have enough expendable income to afford ever being wrong. I'm not saying that I would be a wealthy investor if I obtained a few million dollars to get started with, there are a lot of other variables that determine how well suited a person is to that kind of work, and I'm fairly certain that its not for me.

I'm just saying that Jobs wasn't some kind of futurist demigod.

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I think there are virtual stock markets that you can partake in to see how good you are (although this likely requires investing time which won't directly get paid back if you do well at it.) I wonder if people who do especially well in them can use virtual stock market success as a stepping stone to managing other peoples' money (and getting a cut).

It's well agreed upon that paper trading is nothing like trading with money on the line. It's ALL about psychology.

> It's well agreed upon that paper trading is nothing like trading with money on the line. It's ALL about psychology.

It's also pretty well agreed on (mainly from scientific studies into the actual results of investors) that this is not only bullcrap, but believing it's true was a major contributing factor in the enormous economic disaster we're all still living through right now. I'd like to say how galling it is to see someone hasn't learnt the basic hubris-based lesson we paid so much for -- except that I really can't express that in words adequately.

>It's also pretty well agreed on (mainly from scientific studies into the actual results of investors) that this is not only bullcrap

Are you sure you actually understand what nicholas actually argued? All nicholas (as well as me) wrote is that your decision making changes completely when you have something on the line. And of course it would! So what are you talking about?

When I say money on the line, it really means your own money on the line. The disaster you refer to is when people trade other people's money for a share of profits but no liability.

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