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I agree with you except that you left out the only really important (in my opinion) part of his pretty trivial message: "Sometimes unexpected things happen, and people are bad at expecting the unexpected, and then they FAIL TO NOTICE that they are bad at expecting the unexpected"

It can be difficult for folks (myself included!) to separate their message from their irascible personalities.. ;-)

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But if we were good at noticing that we're bad at expecting the unexpected, then we would expect the unexpected, making it no longer really all that unexpected, no? His whole argument just felt tautological to me.

If you really try, for a long time, you can be that rational. Please note, however, that 99% of people are not that rational, and if you haven't realized it, you're also not that rational. (Neither am I! But at least I realize I have a problem... b^)

If none of this makes sense, take a look at the LessWrong site.

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