Singapore bucks the trend and welcomes Bitcoin | Hacker News Reader

Singapore bucks the trend and welcomes Bitcoin

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53 pointsjasonlingx45 comments

What most people do not realise is that it does not matter if China or the US or any country bans or criminalises bitcoin. All it takes is for 1 small country (like Singapore) to embrace bitcoin for it to be worth $1,000,000 a coin. The first country that wises up to bitcoin, starts investing in mining and other bitcoin infrastructure in a big way, and legitimises its mainstream usage as a currency, is going to reap tremendous benefits. And it's only a matter of time before this happens.

At $1,000,000/btc this would mean all the Bitcoins would be worth twice the value of all the gold ever mined. Seems too optimistic.

True, very unlikely but still, not impossible.

Considering if bitcoin goes mainstream the demand it will generate can easily take it above $100,000 at least. To give you an example, not a single non-techie friend of mine owns a bitcoin, even today.

If bitcoin goes really mainstream why wouldn't litecoin and others go mainstream too? There is a finite supply of bitcoins but a potentially infinite supply of alternative crypto currencies to meet whatever demand is created by the cryptocurrency idea going mainstream. There is no need for a single currency like bitcoin to dominate and grow unbounded.

If bitcoin goes mainstream, it would definitely affect other crypto currencies too, but very little. Others may not necessarily go mainstream. The reason why I say this is since:

1) Bitcoin alone has enough liquidity to handle $100,000/coin or even more and this would not affect its usability as people can still use the smallest denomination, a satoshi. So the finite supply is not a concern at even $1m/coin.

2) Global acceptance will have an important part in making it go mainstream. Right now, online/office vendors have started accepting bitcoins but thats too little, just like how paypal was in its initial days and compared to this, very very less business are accepting other crypto currencies. I know a lot of business who plan to start accepting crypto currencies soon and all of them mean bitcoin. So, why would other crypto currencies go mainstream when you can't actually use them around the Internet?

3) No one would mind buying bitcoins at a higher price, eliminating the need for other crypto currencies. This is so because all vendors peg the bitcoin with USD or some other currency. So if bitcoin prices soar, it really doesn't affect the new buyer much.

You're correct. Litecoin will go mainstream - just like bitcoin. Believe it or not but bitcoin only represents 75 percent of the cryptocurrency market [1]

But people should'nt forget that bitcoin has thousands of GigaHashes per second pointed at the network and litecoin (nor any other altcoin) doesn't. Therefore, in the short term future (next 3-5 yrs) I would says that 25 percent of of the market cap will be altcoins and 75 percent will be bitcoin.

[1] http://coinmarketcap.com/

I once dared to dream of $100 bitcoin. Everybody laughed, nobody wanted to hear about my internet monies on parties.

I think that everything is possible now.

That's the very mindset on the onset of every bubble.

AFAIK, there isn't a single store in the United States that will let you buy anything with gold. There's several places that'll let you buy stuff with bitcoin. Double the value of all the gold ever mined actually seems like a pretty reasonable estimate.

Not trying to say btc will hit $1m... but it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility, especially if it really takes off, which seems more and more likely.

>AFAIK, there isn't a single store in the United States that will let you buy anything with gold. There's several places that'll let you buy stuff with bitcoin.

Yes, until they are regulated.

Besides, there are far more places and people that will deal with you in gold directly, than with bitcoin.

> At $1,000,000/btc this would mean all the Bitcoins would be worth twice the value of all the gold ever mined. Seems too optimistic.

hell, $1/btc seemed too optimistic ;)

>What most people do not realise is that it does not matter if China or the US or any country bans or criminalises bitcoin. All it takes is for 1 small country (like Singapore) to embrace bitcoin for it to be worth $1,000,000 a coin.

Not really. That 1 small country can be pushed diplomatically until it gives up on Bitcoin all too easily.

As for the "$1,000,000" thing, LOL, it seems the tulip/gold rush/quick bucks from nothing dream will never dissapear.

> Not really. That 1 small country can be pushed diplomatically until it gives up on Bitcoin all too easily.

The fact that tax havens like Monaco, Bahamas, Switzerland, etc still thrive prove that this is not the case.

> As for the "$1,000,000" thing, LOL, it seems the tulip/gold rush/quick bucks from nothing dream will never dissapear.

It might be worth considering that bitcoin has already multiplied in value by 1000 times several times, from $0.001 to $1 to $1,000.

That is not argument for further 1000x multiplication. By definition, an asset in a speculative bubble has experienced rapid growth in its past. That doesn't mean that such growth will continue into the future.

> That is not argument for further 1000x multiplication.

I never made that argument. I am simply stating facts that one might want to consider before prophesizing with absolute certainty that a bitcoin will never be worth a million dollars.

The numbers don't work out for 1000x multiplication, at least without vast inflation of the dollar. You would need a very large percentage of the world using bitcoin daily to get that type of return. One small country isn't going to do it.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but since you say the numbers don't work out, what are the numbers?

>The fact that tax havens like Monaco, Bahamas, Switzerland, etc still thrive prove that this is not the case.

Those tax heavens heavily benefit existing companies and rich individuals, that's why they are not affected -- they don't release alternative currencies threatening establishd states and the almighty dollar (and still, the IRS for example pushed them to give US citizens banking records and such).

>It might be worth considering that bitcoin has already multiplied in value by 1000 times several times, from $0.001 to $1 to $1,000.

A, like the tulips. A sure thing to wait for the $1,000,000 then. After all growth is unbounded...

> It might be worth considering that bitcoin has already multiplied in value by 1000 times several times, from $0.001 to $1 to $1,000.

That doesn't make another 1000x multiplication more likely. Quite the contrary.

Are you serious ? What country is going to deliberately undermine their own existing currency by dedicating taxpayers dollars to mining a speculative currency used substantially for illegal activities. And in the process basically throw their own businesses and people under the bus.

I think you are frankly quite delusional if you think ANY government is going to do this.

Probably, no state would do that directly, but what some state could do is too notice unstoppable spread of BTC in their territory for some reason (e.g. because of their own fiscal policies like in Argentina) and instead of waiting to become irrelevant, fight, lose all karma and all funding, could develop a guideline to save the face and satisfy greedy interests of the officials. They can do a "special economic zone" or simply develop simple regulation and taxation terms. If they aren't going to stop that thing, they can profit off it over some extended period of time instead of fighting and quickly losing everything.

Of course, it all depends on actual power structures and level of psychopathy. Good thing, Bitcoin does not care. If there's a fight against it, it'll only slow things down, not stop the process completely.

Unless you're a country bound to a currency controlled by another nation.

Say the Euro collapses. There are many countries who may suddenly decide it makes sense to switch to a new currency. Some may consider BitCoin. In the historical case of Europe, this is unlikely, but it could happen elsewhere.

BitCoin might be a harbor in the face of runaway inflation. Even the swings of BitCoin pale in comparison to periods of massive inflation in several countries.

> BitCoin might be a harbor in the face of runaway inflation. Even the swings of BitCoin pale in comparison to periods of massive inflation in several countries.

It might be, but there's no inflation on the horizon anywhere. The Euro is edging ever closer to deflation.

I do think that countries not satisfied with the current status quo (e.g. USD having a dominant role) could embrace Bitcoin. Obviously, it will tend to be smaller or with less stable currencies, but that is simply where you start.

Converting to a cryptocurrency could be a viable alternative to "dollarization" or other end-games when nations have currency crises.

If you consider for a moment how governments mishandle regular currencies you'd realize that there is no country of any size (other than possibly Sealand) whose bureaucracy would be able to cope.

In other words, nobody will risk their career to push for it even if they thought it was a good idea.

If Singapore chooses bitcoin, what will happen to the SGD? If it will be phased out, who will buy the current owners of SGD bitcoins? If not, what are the advantages of adopting bitcoin?

Actually, that $1,000,000/BTC rate is the biggest obstacle to this scenario and pretty much guarantees that it will never happen: do you really think any government with with even a tiny shred of responsibility OR self-interest will tie their economy to a currency of which about 1/3rd is held by less than 50 completely anonymous people?

Any country that is not the USA controls only a tiny fraction of money supply in the world anyway. Going all in to bitcoin mining would actually increase their control of money supply, especially for the first movers.

Are you joking? Switzerland? The world works that way today? You know who owns the 35 trillion dollars in offshore accounts?

I always thought it would be interesting if Venezuela started accepting bitcoin for oil.

Or if El Salvador and Panama dropped the USD as their currency and used BTC.

So much good news and so little bad news, though the market seems bearish.

The ghash.io story is very bad news

GHash.IO is not news. If you were going to invest in Bitcoin, you were supposed to learn about how it works. It's not hard to understand that building a huge mining farm does not require zillions of money. Especially, if you expect BTC value to grow a lot, you should have accepted that there will be huge interest in mining. If you still feel that BTC is a good deal and miners with 50+% of hashrate won't be dishonest in practice, then you buy. Otherwise you don't. Everyone who is skeptical does not go into this game, and those who move the price to $1000, accept it. (Those who don't learn much about BTC, but still buy are most probably short-term speculators who quickly exit the game anyway; or eventually stay and learn.)

GHash.io reaching 50% is something Bitcoin proponents have been loudly insisting couldn't ever happen.

I bet you can't provide a quote to back up your claim.

I, as Bitcoin proponent, was never insisting that this would never happen. The risk I'm taking as an investor is that if someone takes even 90% of mining power, they'd have little incentive to play dirty (and kill the value of their own savings as much as everyone else's) and a lot of incentive to play nicely. Of course, that's personal evaluation of the risk and I cannot promise to anyone else that shit won't happen. Everyone should think for themselves and vote with their money for what they think it likely to happen.

I expect that until we reach a stable mining market when mining chips are deployed as soon as being produced, there will be quick accelerations in mining hashrate here and there. It'll be volatile like with BTC price. I take the risk that during such volatility there won't be a Big Evil guy to step on everyone's dreams, even if it causes big troubles only temporary.

> If you still feel that BTC is a good deal and miners with 50+% of hashrate won't be dishonest in practice, then you buy. Otherwise you don't.

That's the thing -- I haven't formed a conclusive opinion on this yet. I was hoping that mining self-regulates to an extent that pools don't reach >50%, or that a majority pools is really transparent and trustworthy. GHash.io isn't.

Bearish!? You do realize that if you invested 6 months ago, your investment has risen by 1000% ?!

Also, these recent price rises are nothing compared to what will hit when mass adoption happens in 2014. It's all about perspective. Try to ''zoom out'' when thinking about where bitcoin will go.

http://blog.panampost.com/joel-fensch/2014/01/02/bitcoin-set...

given how easy it is for law enforcement to tap into our internet activities, I suspect bitcoin use is the perfect red flag for them; it is a different kind of bitcoin mining. it is kind of a joke actually; there is some dude trying to secretly buy something that he doesn't want the cops to know about but his use of technology to hide his transactions is the signal that alerts the police to take a closer look. even if he is just buying drugs, his use of bitcoin justifies increases to the law enforcement surveillance and budgets. and the funny part is that we are paying for it. bitcoin makes all of us more vulnerable to surveillance. If you are into bitcoin because you've found a way to get more out than you put in, then by all means continue to do so. If you're into it because you don't want to be tracked then you're lying to yourself.

In other words, don't stand up for your rights because it will only make them mad. Better just accept your fate and don't rock the boat.

Using bitcoin doesn't give you more rights; If you are doing something that the government wants to stop, then bitcoins gives you more rope to hang yourself.

we have a long history that shows how to change your fate and rock the boat without getting yourself killed/jailed. bitcoin doesn't seem to be capable of doing that.

Holy free association of sentences, batman!

Er hm er hm. As a Singaporean, we built casinos, we have $10000 bank notes, we have no capital gains for parking capital in Singapore. And now Bitcoins. I wonder what that points toward.

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