Opinion: Why desktop Linux may have lost its chance

Don't bother reading it. Here is the last paragraph.

  As apps and data move into the cloud, the traditional
  PC metaphors are beginning to lose their relevance.
  We're entering the age of the invisible PC: a world 
  where Windows may soon seem as archaic and limiting 
  as the mainframes of yesterday. The new computing 
  model is extending the digital workspace beyond 
  the desktop to a range of new devices -- including 
  smartphones, netbooks, and gadgets not even 
  invented yet. Some of these devices run Linux now, 
  and many more will in the future. The value 
  proposition of open source for hardware manufacturers 
  is such that Linux's future as a vital, thriving 
  client-side OS is all but assured. It just won't
  be on the desktop.

Don't bother reading that even. Here it is in a sentence.

  A lot of people don't use Linux.

It's hard to beat the home team. Microsoft (and Apple) created what we think of as a desktop computer. It's not enough for Linux to be "just as good" and not even enough for them to be "a little bit better" Linux would have to totally redefine what a desktop computer is and how it works. I don't think there's enough room for innovation in what we think of as a desktop computer experience for that to ever happen. As this article rightly states Linux is on the ground floor of the next wave and that's a good spot to be. Linux won't be visible however. How many TIVO owners know they're running Linux? 1%? less? It's a great product though because TIVO was able to focus on things like usability, UI design, predictive recording, etc. Linux is a fantastic foundation but someone else has to build the house.

the main problem with linux is that it doesn't limit the users choices enough. It's fine to keep all the choices available, but put them behind the scenes. When someone boots up a linux distro for the first time they should see a browser, a word processor, email, a media player, and an IM client...some basic games too. ubuntu netbook remix is the best example of this that i've seen. Once you get this down, polish polish polish. The average user doing average tasks should never see anything but a slick GUI. If you sit any non computer savvy person down in front of it and they see anything else you have failed and you need to do more tweaking.

this is why apple can charge a huge premium on their products. people sit down and it goes.

I have used Windows through many generations. I was happy. I began to feel frustrated as a user because I felt constrained somehow. I could find tools but actually making tools, i.e. programming, was out there somewhere that I could not get a handle on. I grew up on machines with BASIC at the command prompt and was initially just fine with Windows. I had a spreadsheet and email and a browser, what more could I want? I initially tried Ubuntu Linux because of a piece of software that was only available on Linux. I found Linux incredibly frustrating. Where were my clickable GUIs? Command lines and sudo and permissions drove me crazy. Eventually I became somewhat comfortable with those things, found my way through the various forums, learned the file hierarchy well enough to deal. Downloaded an IDE or 6, played with C and Python and Ruby. Got to the point where I can fix a weird problem in an hour or so. And.... I still have this legacy XP machine that my business runs on. A machine I have grown to hate, that feels like a prison. That requires constant registry cleaning, virus removing and endless invested time that does not lead to any kind of progress.

But....I can't just jump on over to Linux completely. I have Quickbooks holding me back. Eventually I will get SQL Register going or some other solution running and slurp all the legacy data from two companies into it.

I am an earlyish adopter, not at the front of the curve but before the hump for sure. I am not a typical user I am small business oriented, certainly not a gamer or a casual user.

I believe that Linux will prevail in time. It is important to remember that the widespread use of computers is barely a decade old. It may seem like an eternity if you are living in the fast paced world of development and business, but it has been only seconds for everyone else.

I think the author makes some very valid arguments and presents them in a non-dogmatic way (from either side). I use Linux at home and Windows at work and am fairly happy in both environments. In general, I've found that Linux applications tend to lack polish and Windows applications (and the OS) tend to lack functionality (from a developer's POV).

I can also agree with the author that the fragmentation of the Linux market poses a significant barrier to entry to most unintiated and nontechnical users.

I'd rather leave versions of Linux like Ubuntu and their ilk and keep the amateurs out of our way as we use the professional setups and leave us alone.