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On the referenced pdf[1], there are two professions related to us:

130 0.042 Software Developers, Applications

293 0.48 Computer Programmer

The former has 4% probability to lose to automation, while the later is 48%. What is the difference between the two?

[1] http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/sites/futuretech.ox.ac.uk/fil...

They appear to be using the BLS categorizations[1][2]. Essentially, the difference is that Computer Programmers do none of the planning or design that Software Developers do; they only do routine coding. Since Computer Programmers only do routine coding and none of the more intellectually challenging parts of software development, they can more easily be replaced by using higher-level languages or better tools. It's worth noting that Software Developers are already 3x more common than Computer Programmers and the number of Software Developers is increasing 10x as fast, so even many of the people who call themselves programmers are probably classified as Software Developers.

[1] http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/c...

[2] http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/s...

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