I've just recently set up GPG for my family using 4096 bit keys. How long do I have, assuming no hole is found, before needing to change?
I'm fond of saying that the thing that takes out RSA-2048 is likely to take out RSA altogether, so, over the medium term, look to Elliptic Curve instead of RSA. New systems should be designed with ECC instead of classical IFP/DLP crypto.
Depending on how Moore's law progresses and our understanding of the Universe, you may never need to change (ignoring all other possible ways your key can be acquired).