> I doubt that their experience will translate very well into the long tail of musicians.

Oh I'm sure it does. I certainly wouldn't know as many bands as I know today without piracy - and this translates very much into buying CDs and going to shows, though I can't afford to buy every CD from every band I like.

For smaller bands, getting known is the most important. It's what gets them bigger gigs, better labels, better production, better press coverage, better invitations to festivals, better endorsement deals... There's a very strong analogy with start ups there : focus on growth, take VC money, and you'll get the conversion rate sorted out when you're bigger.