.
Current Salary On Open Market = X
Startup Salary = Y
Option Value Today = Z
.
4(X) = 4(Y)+Z(2)
this is obviously the big IF, if people are saying think of it as windfall, maybe 1.5??
The problem there is, the expected value is more or less the current market value of the options (if you believe in anything approaching an efficient market), which is more or less the strike price times the number of shares. So, often these are in the neighborhood of $10k over 4 years or $2500/yr.
In other words, don't try to talk yourself into it from an accounting perspective.
But just looking at expected value ignores risk. Most people are risk averse, especially at the amounts of money we're talking about here.
IMHO it takes risk into account in a very sobering way.
Speak for yourself.
I own a few options in companies I was at. One went under and the other did a "tech deal" and then divested it's assets. Both cases my options are worth about $0 :)
It entirely depends on the person and how risk-averse (or not) they are.