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Comment by altoz | Hacker News Reader

I think statistically, if you punt from the 9 yard line, the other team is going to get excellent field position (around the 50 yard line). The difference between failing on 4th and 1 from your own 9 and the other team getting the ball around the 50 yard line is 41 yards of field position.

That may sound like a lot, but I'd imagine the actual point difference is on the order of 2 points.

The more interesting thing to consider would be whether taking a safety there is ever a positive.

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If you turn the ball over before reaching your own 30, you give the other team at least 3 points, because a field goal at that distance is trivial.

This bot also requires both coaches to follow it's recommendations, because otherwise the comparison between what they call "point values" of the two teams becomes meaningless.

No. Because you cost yourself 2 points and you give the ball to them. Essentially you gave them 2 points at the cost of being able to "punt" the ball at the 35.

Ah, but sometimes two points is not so bad if the clock is a factor and you're about to turn over possession regardless. Down by one and facing a fourth down against the Broncos from his own one yard line with three minutes to go, Bill Belichick famously took an intentional safety[1]. The field position gain from the free kick was worth the two points, and the Patriots went on to win.

[1] http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?id=1653659

Ah interesting, I have never heard about this game specifically.

It seems though he gave up some amount of EV by giving up the 2 points to the Broncos, thus a FG later on would only tie the game instead of winning it. But I assumed this was offset by the risk of having to punt and the Broncos end up getting a FG where then they'd be up by 4 points.

I don't know if Belichick was right to do this, but it paid off for him which is why everyone pats him on the back.

Contrast this with the 2009 Colts/Pats game where he went for it on 4th and 2 on his own 28 and didn't make it.

Exactly. Punt from the 1 and the Broncos will have the opportunity to burn clock and still likely kick a field goal, forcing you into a touchdown-required situation. As it was, the free kick netted even more yards than expected.

Going for it on 4th and 2 in the '09 game was the right decision, and few knowledgeable commentators disparaged Belichick for it. Manning was dissecting the Pats defense at that point in the game: He had a much greater chance of scoring a touchdown than the Colts defense had of stopping the conversion.

Now the playcall...

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