As an entrepreneur, I disagree. If anything, I'm under-confident. I give pretty much every other developer (and designer) the benefit of the doubt that they're better than me. I just make websites; it's not kernel hacking or compilers, you know.

And it isn't unusual risk tolerance. You know what's really risky? Depending on a salary to pay your mortgage. Having kids. From my perspective, multi-decade obligations are risky. Compromise is risky. Making my own way is the only risk-free thing I can do in a society which exists to remove its own free will.

Perhaps some people are confusing "overconfidence" with a lack of belief in absolutes like "failure", "success", and "mistakes".