Amazon Drones - 60 Minutes [video]
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Holy hell. I can't think of anything scarier than the internet version of WalMart controlling all of modern consumerism. (Except, of course, Amazon's fingers reach into so many more digital pies than WalMart)
It's just an easy target for people who want to misdiagnose a problem and provide a solution that will make things worse.
Because you run a business that Walmart is outcompeting? You have no imagination if you can't come up with at least ten ways people could be being negatively affected by Walmart outside of direct business interactions with it.
Currently Amazon is a disruptor. They are doing things that no other online retailer is doing, and they're doing it better, because they chose to shoulder that risk. But merely because Amazon is doing better now doesn't mean that someone else won't come along and disrupt Amazon and kill them.
In fact, Bezos fully expects that to happen someday, and almost seems to welcome it. I think because it means progress.
Amazork.com - Confidential! Do not read unless authorized!
Guys-
Since super saver shipping worked so well, we decided to further expand our delivery options by offering instantaneous delivery. Since quantum teleportation is still in its infancy as a technology, the best alternative seems to be orbital fulfilment centers with ballistic delivery systems. So far, we've successfully built a prototype magnetic railgun that serves most of the western United States. While it does deliver items within seconds, as planned, we have not worked out all of the kinks (not to mention the, ahem, liability issues.)
We have been pursuing a partnership with some contacts Jeff made in the course of his space exploration work. The technology transfer is promising but the long term ramifications are unclear.
In case what amounts to the militarization of e-commerce becomes impractical, we've also been pursuing a more conventional method for rapid distribution in desnely populated urban areas. You can go take a look at the prototype on the top floor of PAC (you'll need your "special-access" key, though.)
-J
The other interesting thing was the discussion about selling user data and how unconcerned everyone was at that point about it.
Reporter: I think my generation grew up with Sears.
Some Wall Street Guy: And Amazon is worth 20% more than Sears is worth, in market capitalization.
Reporter: How do you view that phenomenon, that Amazon today is worth more than Sears?
WSG: Investors are focused on the future. Amazon has growth potential that Sears doesn't.
Reporter: (Scoffing) A couple of geeks, who sketched out some software, could destroy Sears-Roebuck?
I realize that little drones aren't the same thing as delivery trucks, but it seems strange that the economics would be that much different. I'll believe it when I see it.
I agree, announcing it now is probably a publicity stunt: look at the theatrics in how they announced it. But that doesn't mean it isn't also the future of delivery in some higher density areas.
If it takes 1 or 2 years to come up with rules for new technologies, that is too long. What we actually need are functional peer-defined systems for interoperation and safety. A set of immediately obsolete prescriptive top down policies is probably going to be a hindrance.
Government as it exists in its current form is obsolete. I advocate that every citizen acquire a personal natural rights and sane systems enforcement quadcopter armed with non-lethal weapons. These quadcopters should be used for a nonlethal removal of obsolete government structures and personnel.
Do you think coming up with that will be shorter or longer than the 1 or 2 year turnaround time at the FDA?
I love this paragraph.
Amazon believes it could be operational as early as 2015. I assume it's only going to be in certain municipalities and even then only in a certain area. It might not actually be as crazy as it sounds- the drone will probably pay for itself when you consider that Amazon will no longer be dependent on FedEx. The $7 (or whatever) they pay FedEx to deliver Prime stuff now goes to paying for the drones, amortized over a whole geographic area, maybe they'll even end up saving money.
The hacking arms race is about to go airborne. I wonder what the penalty would be if I send up my drone to intercept one of their drones and shoot it down?
I wonder if the have bigger drones for delivery of things like a billiards table? I would order one for a friend just to scare the out of him.
It's great to see a huge company continuing to propel us into the future rather than planning that in 5 years it could sit on it's laurels with a monopoly.
- How will it be cost effective? This is not free two day shipping like in Prime.
- How can it be 30 min delivery? That would mean Amazon will have a whole lot of hubs all over the country in 1 hour radii. That itself sounds impractical. Amazon would give up the one big advantage they have over walmart - the fact that they don't own and maintain floor spaces all over the country.
Amazon is already building distribution centers all over the countries where they operate. They are massively upscaling their distribution network, and it's fair to expect that by 2015 they would have reached a point where they can guarantee 30 mins delivery in all major hubs.
Note that even currently, "prime" is not available for all items sold on Amazon anyway. I expect there will be similar restrictions as to what applies to "prime air".
I suppose the challenge would be hiding the drone, especially before drones become a ubiquitous consumer-good... but I suppose you don't have to meet them at home; any flat rooftop is a valid place to drop a package to go collect, or a valid "overnight parking" destination.