Amazon Unveils Delivery By Drone
zdnet.com
zdnet.com
The truck never stops, optimizing its route for all the drones it has in the air.
Writing that code would be a pretty cool job.
But that's the problem: no matter how many variations of the obvious you list, they'll find something to patent.
Even after you account for a minimum price to make it worthwhile, that's many, many more deliveries than UPS/FedEx does.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/amazon-s-robotic-workforce-no...
FYI I'm not a luddite and I recognize the increased convenience that faster shipping would provide and the potential other gains that would come of commercial drones. But the tradeoff just doesn't seem worth it here at all.
Regarding your other concerns, there was an interesting episode of Freakonomics with Clay Shirky about the Internet, and how it gets regulated (or doesn't) by the fears of what it could do. A relevant exchange with the host starts here [1] at 20:08. The audio transcript is also available and Ctrl-F to "Let me ask you this kind of more." Shirky says:
"... there’s a large class of problems that you don’t solve until you have them. Right? You hear all of the ethicists saying oh the technology is outrunning ethics, to which the pragmatist answer is that’s exactly what we want. If you and I were to sit down right now and say well let’s draw up regulations for time travel and telekinesis we would, it’s a ridiculous question."
[1] http://freakonomics.com/2013/11/14/who-runs-the-internet-a-n...
As far as "polluting the sky" that's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. Flying robots delivering packages everywhere sounds incredibly awesome to me, and if not, well we can't please everyone's aesthetic preference. Our current infrastructure of cars and pavement everywhere isn't particularly beautiful as it is. Electric drones flying back and forth don't require any new infrastructure or "destroy the sky".
I also doubt there would be drone's everywhere. Maybe, but I'm guessing it'd just be something you occasionally see. You might not notice it at all depending how high they fly.
The occasional buzzing quadra-copter would be sweet music compared to the infernal leaf blowers and lawn-care equipment that gets a frequent workout.
These aren't going to end the world. Especially if it saves lots of people making lots of small trips to the shops for single items. In fact I would say they would make a positive contribution to quality of life.
>FYI I'm not a luddite But you are talking like one.
yes, man, have you read about mid 19th century auto laws in England?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Locomotive_Act
"The 1865 act required all road locomotives, which included automobiles, to travel at a maximum of 4 mph (6 km/h) in the country and 2 mph (3 km/h) in towns and have a crew of three travel, one of whom should carry a red flag walking 60 yards (55 m) ahead of each vehicle. "
"In addition to any concerns about the state of the roads, by the 1860s, there was concern that the widespread use of traction engines, such as road locomotives and agricultural engines, would endanger the safety of the public. It was feared that engines and their trailers might cause fatal accidents, scare horses, block narrow lanes, and disturb the locals by operating at night. "
A few random thoughts:
1) "Safety questions" - drones won't fly drunk, or while texting, or putting on makeup, or...you get the point. We regularly engage in what is arguably the most dangerous activity on the planet without batting an eye or thinking we should clamp down on the number of barely-trained 16-yo's doing it, so I'm not going to be moved by the safety concerns on this one. If for no other reason than drones are expensive, and lawsuits more so, so you can expect a pretty good safety record
2) "Noise/environment concerns" - I was working in the SF Bay Area when 9/11 happened; it was weird to suddenly not have planes constantly taking off from 3 different airports. For a few days.
It will be strange to have this things buzzing around the sky - for a few months. Then you'll stop looking up. I can't imaging them being worse than a leaf blower or a big diesel delivery truck.
3) "Airspace/regulations" - this part is fascinating to me. How do you avoid children's kites? Rival delivery drones? BB-guns? (I know that's what I'd be doing - a lucky shot to a rotor, and I'm the Hero Slayer of the 6th Grade). It is - literally (now that "literally" means anything you want it to, I can use it without fear) - a new frontier, with the same types of questions we're asking about Moon and Asteroid rights. I'm psyched we have these types of technical questions to deal with now.
4) "Surveillance/terrorists/et al" - whatever your concern - too late.
Start this post thinking to just think about & list my response to each major point raised elsewhere; looks like I've come out pretty keen on this whole thing. Hello, future! Isaac Asimov, you almost made it.
It's interesting that we aren't being pitched package boxes with one way delivery and security keypads, etc.
Although with these, I don't see why window box style package drops wouldn't appear. All it would have to be is a rigid mesh frame so it's not affected by wind/rain/snow, which would also make it light weight so it could be constructed easily large enough for the mini helicopters to make drops into. Put the QR codes on a sticker that goes on the window like an alarm company sticker.
I know the first response will be "that'll never happen", but it would allow package delivery any time, anywhere. Live on the 5th floor of a walk up? Your new game will be waiting right outside your window when you get home.
I honestly imagine there would be high demand for this for courier services.
http://www.news.com.au/business/companies/aussie-company-zoo...
It begs me to wonder....
1. Won't theft of packages run rampant or Amazon only will deploy drones to customers currently home?
2. Wouldn't the drones be subject to be shot or brought down?
3. Will this only fly in good weather?
4. The sky is going to be littered with these things flying around?
5. Will there be a service where you can rent a drone to spy on your mate? Divorce lawyers could sell it.
On (5) for enough money you could probably already do this. Paparazzi photographers have already started using drones in the EU and US.
1. Won't theft run rampant if UPS drops off your package at your door when you're not home?
2. Don't drivers of cars and trucks risk getting shot or stopped?
3. Will cars and trucks travel only in good weather?
4. The highways are going to be littered with cars and trucks driving around? Won't this lead to "traffic jams"?
5. Will there be a service where you can rent a car (or taxi) to spy on your mate?
I'm not trying to be glib, but rephrasing the questions like this puts the issues in a new light. You can see the potential problems and solutions.
Although you'd have to be a pretty stupid adulterer to get caught by a noisy drone while cheating. That may just be a tautology.
Another question is would they be a threat to birds?
The technology side is cool, but I don't relish the thought of looking out the window and seeing the air packed with delivery drones going to and fro.
A system-wide software glitch could also cause quite a mess in a dense city.
I think this could be cool but I would prefer my packages to be delivered by the Planet Express ship.
Really - unless you lived on 5th Avenue downstream from a local delivery drone center, I doubt you'd see many drones. I don't see how we would see a sparrow flying past as 'pretty' and a drone flying past as 'ugly'. I would be amused to watch them from a window, just like I get amusement from watching planes take off and land. I guess it depends on your perspective.
Serious thought: Nice. Though what safety precaution will be in place? How many can be fly at the same time? How exactly do we pick up this drone? What stops non-owner from picking up the delivery? What stops from someone detouring the drone to a different location? How does it know where to drop? How to drop? Some environment reader must be implemented in this robot.
2) limited operational capabilities in regards to weather conditions. As someone who has flown ram air canopies in urban environments, I can tell you that 10mph winds of a building creates some interesting vortices. What's the air speed of a quad/octocopter-style drone?
3) shared airspace issues. These drones will probably fly pretty low (<1000ft?) and they will not be alone. There will be many drones in the air, from various manufacturers and companies. Imagine the ATC complexity in an environment like that. There's no system for that today.
Solving problems like that would probably be very interesting.
Well, is it an american or european swall, er, drone?
Edit: Sincerely curious as to why this got voted down. Is environmental impact not a possible issue with this system?
The main thing is energy density - the batteries only allow for about 10-15 mins flight with a reasonable payload. Considering Amazon will have to do a roundtrip, this will not give them a very long range.
The second thing is safety - we never fly above people. I don't think the authorities will allow Amazon to fly over populated areas until the tech is 100% safe, which it isn't yet.
I think we're looking around the same time frame as with self driving electric cars becoming commonplace.. Many of the problems with battery life and safety are shared. Maybe 7 years?
Actually even just a UGV would be pretty useful.
Crime will happen, sure, but it won't be that common and there are easy things that could be done to deter it.
I don't see 'rampant theft' of delivery vans.
If drones become the common place, why should any one steal them.
Honestly its a 18th century person using horse carriages saying cars becoming common will lead to rampant car theft. If something is freely available the motivation to steal it drops.