Is this the most value-dense information on Earth?
blog.perfmode.com
blog.perfmode.com
[1] http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3666164/
[2] http://www.arrowheadresearch.com/press-releases/arrowhead-an...
Perhaps some kind of revolutionary mathematical fact could be worth even more? This is a very interesting question.
EDIT: A lot of people responding to me seem to be trying to contradict my argument by pointing out that if it was true, it would be true for almost everything. I don't get how that works, because it is true of everything! Flooding the market will always reduce the value of what you are selling.
How much is the gold in Fort Knox really worth?
Amount of present gold holdings: 147.3 million ounces. The gold is held as an asset of the United States at book value of $42.22 per ounce.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/metals/
COMEX Gold Value: 1,250.40/per troy ounce
1 ounce = 0.911458333 troy ounces
$167,875,968,689 USD
You are correct. Selling that much gold at once would decimate the gold market.
To the true matter though is that valuing things by their liquid value is problematic especially when their liquidity isn't ever really going to be utilized.
You could easily liquidate out of that entire position over the next six months without crashing the bitcoin market. In fact, the added liquidity might help lessen the volatility.
That seems a rather flawed way of viewing the density, since that key represents 2^256 possible combinations. So if you take a way a bit, the density by that measure goes up 0.3%. Practically speaking, it should double.
Why don't we instead calculate the density as the expected value of guessing one combination. In other words, let's say I have stolen an ATM card and can wipe a bank account containing $100,000 by guessing the 4 digit pin:
$100,000/(10^4) = $10/guess
Or in our case:
$161,590,330/(2^256) = $1.39e-69/guess
Not so impressive now.
Suppose you are omniscient but that you have a terminal illness, and have 256 time units left in your life to give value to your heirs. Due to your illness, you can only communicate by blinking. If you can give one bit of information per time unit by blinking, what is the information you can give your heirs that will maximize their inheritance?
Omniscient? Well, I'm not very creative, but you should be able to get off at least half a dozen lottery picks in that.
In other words, bury massive inheritance in the desert. Issue a list of 1,000,000 GPS coordinates. Then you only need 10 bits.
Or even a terrorist's planning information prior to an event?
Or even genetic code?
[1] http://www.damninteresting.com/ive-got-the-same-combination-...
The difference is the private key gives the beholder power over the wallet at any time from anywhere in the world. No additional information is required.
There was a period in history where this claim was certainly true. Now, not so much.
Information of this nature loses value when revealed.
That private key holds value until it becomes public. Then, the wallet is plundered and its value falls to nought.
But from a social aspect, cracking that key would be like hitting one of the multi-state lotteries. And people continue to play them all the time, despite the astronomical odds against their winning.
1. If the owner of the wallet still has access to it, they can easily transfer the amount to smaller wallets, and reduce their risk.
2. If the owner has lost access, it is good for the community to recover the lost coins.
So maybe there's a correlation, in the sense of knowing the GPS coordinates of Fort Knox, and targeting it with an ICBM?
The value is purely held up by what value people ascribe to this information. This can change rapidly (and it does), so the precise measure of value isn't really known until you actually convert it.
If you actually try to convert in a short amount of time, it'll rapidly destroy its own value, because the market doesn't have the kind of depth to absorb a hundreds of millions of USD conversion, so the only way to satisfy that bitcoin volume would be a rapid drop in price, which would lower the amount of USD in order to satisfy it, or conversely, increase the purchase power of everybody on the market.
The true value of this stash is thus, in fact, some fraction of the current valuation of bitcoin. The larger the stash, the smaller the fraction becomes, because the larger the stash, the less able will you be to realize the value.
This is the reason the winkelvii are creating an ETF. They're sitting on 1% of the coins in existence. An attempt to realize profits would take an extremely long time without moving the market quite adversely. So they need to create a vehicle that allows them to massively increase the market depth.
Apple's hedge fund, Braeburn Capital, likely qualifies. It's arguably the largest hedge fund in the world. Gain access to their network and you could wreak serious financial havoc.
Rather, stuxnet comes to mind. We're talking about $150 billion after all.
Of course the other issue is, I'm betting they're holding a lot of short term government securities. It simply isn't plausible to steal $70 billion worth of short term US paper and do anything with it.