Encrypted-only access is not a solution, it's a patch. Here is how China could break it if they wanted to:
1. Choose domains that you want to monitor in this way. E.g. github.com.
2. Requests to any IP for that domain on port 443 will return a certificate that the Chinese government issued using CNNIC. This is trusted by at least Mozilla: http://snag.gy/E1ftE.jpg (note to self: delete that ca)
3. Requests to any IP for that domain on port 80 will be converted to ssl. So the browser is connected over http to the ISP, and the ISP's servers will connect over https/ssl to Github.
In all instances, monitoring is possible. Forcing ssl is no solution. It does make monitoring harder though, and I suppose that is a good thing already, but all the Chinese government needs to do is throw money at it and the ISPs will be able to handle this.