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I made a small joke at the end of my comment not because I thought sending someone to the gulag is funny, but because speaking of serious stuff doesn't need to be all dark and serious, if you know what I mean.
Never been to NK but from what I read, it seems like we would have made the world a favor if we'd invaded NK instead of Iraq (I know it's not practical and NK's invasion would be much, much harder than Iraq).
They essentially predict the north of south korea would be overrun, following artillary bombardment around the border / later Seol.
Then the remaining south must hold until marines from the mainland US and Japan can arrive, and then there would be a long and costly war to push back into NK (which the US would win, providing public oppinion held).
There is some evidence that in that sort of situation, China would invade North Korea, taking the northern third of the country. This could help the US, or create wider conflict, depending on how it played out.
Iraq and Afganistan were not wars on the same scale as Vietnam or WW2. NK probably would be. We can all hope it doesn't happen.
I think most people consider that a near-certainty. The Chinese government has made it evident that it doesn't want a US-aligned Korea sharing a large land border with it, and doesn't want a flood of Korean refugees entering China.
The American military apparatus still subscribes, rightly or wrongly, to the notion that air superiority equals dominance; they've also learned the hard way to avoid boots on the ground if at all possible. This would probably be coupled with massive aerial food aid and propaganda drops to suppress the sort of popular insurrection that bedevils the Americans in Iraq. Then they hope the infantry can saunter in and meet the lightest possible resistance. Of course, no plan ever survives contact with the enemy, so things might not shake out that way.
I think in practice fighting a war is different from how we might think.
Some people say that the problem the NK army would have would be keeping its troops supplied, given the lack of petrol, trucks, and food in NK, and presumably destruction of the roads there. Along with the end of incoming food aid, leading to widespread starvation there.
I agree with you that the US would win eventually. To me, it looks like the cost would be an aweful lot of dead Koreans on both sides though.
NK is China's client. An attack on NK would not be taken lightly, and might lead China to retaliate, or disrupt the attack, or just not cooperate. China also knows an attack by Japan, or South Korea, or the US / NATO would have a democratic replacement as a goal, and China would be very nervous at democracy being established at its doorstep.
Imagine China invading and imposing their communist ideals in Baja California (after imagining Baja California was the corrupt hellhole NK is now, which is frankly hard to do). Would the US tolerate such action, or would the US openly or clandestinely cause trouble?
Purpose of this wasn't to mock. It was to show that the world really did pay attention to NK. Kim Jong Il dying was a big thing. Guessing it made some people hopeful, some nervous. What's probably sure is that the nuclear test definitely made people nervous. With this data, measurably so.
In my job I regularly evaluate whether to publish something, and it's never a light decision. Though this is a private item, I sat on it for a year and debated posting it monthly. Dozens of edits later, and the data kept nagging at me - so it's now out and done.
Oh Kil-nam is a South Korean man who received his PhD in Germany, decided to defect there with his wife and two children in 1986.
Read the story, is all I can say.
It can't get enough of the place.