Mapping OKCupid answer data: rape fantasies and hygiene by state | Hacker News Reader

Mapping OKCupid answer data: rape fantasies and hygiene by state

blog.okcupid.com

98 pointstimr44 comments

The article makes some strong claims about the statistical validity of their results. However, 1,000,000 observations is not always better than 3,000 observations. If the data are not representative, then a Gallup poll (which is) of a order of magnitude smaller sample is much more powerful.

Whether or not the data is statistically valid across the general populace may or may not be relevant to people who are concerned with the sample that is represented.

Counterintuitively, if the sample is truly randomly distributed, you gain very little additional information as you go beyond 300 samples. This is why every political poll has an error margin of + or - 3%.

Glad someone pointed this out.

The real problem is most samples are not random. So, you are bound by the bias of your methods and you can't really get all that accurate. In theory when you double your sample size you do reduce your margin of error by a reasonable degree, but reality does not mesh until you start taking a large percentage of the population.

Think of it like a coin, that has a 1% bias you want the percentage to some accuracy (say 4 digits) how many flips do you need?. Now what if the problem is not the coin but the person doing the flipping. At some point more testers help more than more flips.

Right, but that doesn't mean that 300 (or 3000) samples total is enough. You can't make the detailed map about burning the national flag with 3000 samples. More data is helpful until you have 300 samples per pixel.

The claim it makes is this:

And a word about statistical validity: the best questions on OkCupid have been answered over a million times. Therefore we have unique insights into the American mindset

Yeah, so OKCupid users aren't representative of the average American, but somehow I don't think a post titled "Rape Fantasies and Hygiene By State" is meant to be a serious exercise in statistics.

Why not? Are sex and (not) bathing somehow different from other topics in a way that is relevant mathematically?

The way the post is marketed indicates that it's entertainment, not analysis.

Can't it be both?

Arguing that OKC data is better than Gallup's (as the article implies) isn't a strong claim of statistical validity, it's ignorance of the basic principles of statistics.

It's more likely a joke. The guy has a mathematics degree from Harvard. http://www.okcupid.com/about-us/

Selection Bias much?

Volunteer polling is about as un-scientific as you can get. Did it not occur to them that people who are willing to answer poll questions about sex are probably going to have different opinions about sex than someone who isn't willing to seek out the poll?

Selection bias doesn't explain the inter-state difference, which is what the visualizations are attempting to display.

For that to be an issue here, you'd have to argue that there's something about living in Nevada as opposed to New York, independent of your attitude towards sex, that would affect whether or not after seeing this question, you chose to answer or pass.

Perhaps not, but ratios of males and females might explain most of the differences between east and west.

Re: Showering.

I have this tragedy-of-the-commons thing going on with the other tenants in the building. The water is "included" in the rent and so I sometimes shower 3, 4 times a day for the hell of it. I've seriously considered heating the place by running the shower nonstop in winter, but someone would probably catch on.

Right out of college, dirt poor, I had a place alone, and would turn the water heater on 45 minutes before I'd shower, then turn it off again.

I had a similar situation. During a heat wave I filled up the bathtub and sinks with cold water to absorb some of the heat. A few days later they sent someone to check for water leaks in my apartment =).

I'm not sure that is actually such an inefficient method of cooling your place- water is after all, famous for its high heat capacity.

Wow, it scares me that anyone thinks flag burning should be illegal.

The interesting thing is that almost everyone believes that flag burning ought to be totally legal; the argument is just over the circumstances.

As is routinely pointed out, burning a flag is the approved way of "retiring" one when it's no longer fit to be flown. If you fly a flag every day, this will be about once a year or so. In my area, the American Legion or Boy Scouts do "flag retirements" as a fund raiser once in a while; you turn in your old flags and they respectfully burn them. (Maybe they play Taps at the same time or something.)

So the argument isn't over flag burning per se, and it never was. It's over flag defacement or "desecration," i.e. burning the flag in the context of a political demonstration, or as an overtly political act.

Technically you don't burn a flag during a retirement. It is cut into quarters first. Or at least it was when I was doing these ceremonies with the Boy Scouts.

I have to move back to California

Don't. Unless you are a gay guy, or a girl. Your numbers are against you. (a lot of guys and few girls), especially in the Bay Area. That green thing is probably a lot of guys skewing that result.

From a personal anecdote evidence, I have had much better luck in the East Coast for casual stuff.

The Bay Area is hands down the worst place I have ever lived for dating.

That's why it's a great place to work on startups. Fewer distractions.

Only if you want to ignore important aspects of your life.

Which is probably ideal if you're going to focus all your energy on doing one thing really well.

What do you need to perform at your absolute best?

I need to know that the rest of my life is taken care of. Relationships included.

You never know that, especially with relationships.

It's pretty clear that better is better than worse.

Interesting. Why is that? My naive assumption would have been that SF in particular would be good for straight males.

It's not nearly as bad if you're willing to be open and try non-conventional ways of meeting people, e.g. online. Sites like OKCupid have many women who are either intellectually inclined themselves (i.e. "nerdy") or are looking to meet a guy who is; this way, you are much more likely to find someone who appreciates and likes you for who are you than at a sports bar or a night club (whether in Bay Area, or elsewhere).

Given the tech-savviness of the Bay Area, I actually think how well OKCupid works out here almost makes up for the fact that it seems to be harder to meet girls in the real world here than anywhere else. Given, you won't always "spark" with someone you meet online, but if you do, at least it means you probably get along with them on a deeper level than just "you're at the bar and look cute."

I fail to understand why anyone would fantasize about anything remotely like rape.

On the off chance that you are genuinely curious about the phenomenon, here is a good start:

http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/brainstorm/200805/why-do...

Thank you. I was/I am.

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