Luck and Entrepreneurship: A tale of two startups
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Part of building a business is understanding market conditions and competition. I get that things can come completely out of left field, but there are different degrees to which you can monitor competition and how receptive people will be to your product or service. It's dangerous (and potentially fatal) to be head down building your product and ignoring looming threats.
I think there's some Venn Diagramming to be done here. Luck doesn't mean that something is impossible to react to; it simply means that you're not the instigating agent of the event. There's a very large set of categories that are luck, and some of those are timing issues.
Yes, yes, yes. I can't emphasize this enough. Too often we glorify these startup "unicorns" for their apparent innate "ability" to time the market. The latter part of this statement is the secret sauce.