The thought entered my mind to short $BA after reading this when you posted it. Today, Boeing made the delay official and the stock dropped 7% right at opening.
http://money.aol.com/rtn/pr/boeing-postpones-787-first-fligh...
http://money.aol.com/rtn/pr/boeing-postpones-787-first-fligh...
In Boeing's recent statement they said they need a few weeks to determine the length of the delay. It is not a good sign when it takes weeks to find out how far behind you are.
Prediction Number 2: For every week it takes Boeing to release an updated schedule, the delay will be 1-2 months. I think it will take Boeing 2-3 weeks to release a statement, so that means somewhere between 2-6 months delay. I'll take 6 months.
Boeing lost about $3B in value yesterday and today. Boeing margin on planes is a maximum of about 6%. To me, this means Wall Street thinks about 250 planes (or more) are now delayed. I figured that out by solving $3B / 6%, which is total revenue expected by Boeing when profits are $3B. I took that number and divided by $200MM, which is the approximate sales price per plane. That comes out to be 250 planes (which would result in $3B profit).
Boeing says they would be able to produce about 10 planes per month, eventually ramping up to 16. That means it takes about 2 years for Boeing to make 250 planes.
Checking my numbers, I said a 6 month delay, then there will be 1 year of testing, and then Boeing can start manufacturing. So I predicted somewhere over 18 months, assuming no further problems (yeah right), while Wall Street predicts around 2 years, pending further statements.
Prediction #3: First non-test version 787 delivered to a customer Fall 2011.
I may regret that prediction later in life. :)