Those are two different things though. Success and innovation. I was referring to innovation alone. Success is a whole other beast and I am sure it can be debated to great lengths. Especially in this context where it's not a zero-sum game. In order for Nintendo to be successful Valve doesn't have to lose and vice versa. They have to successfully capture whatever the market they are after. Is it the same market? I doubt it. Is there some overlap. Sure.
The future of console gaming is Valve
I don't bet because I am strongly opposed, for personal reasons, against gambling. We can bet on proverbial 'I told you so' if you will. Even though I haven't alluded that I think Valve isn't the future of console gaming in any way, now that I think about it I am sure it won't be. There's a possibility they will be a major player in console market, but I don't see that happening any time soon. I am quite sure they will disrupt PC gaming market once again... console gaming? no.
So if you will, we can bet on that and come back to this 5 years from now for an 'I told you so' moment :)
PS
As long as I remember (and I remember back to the dinosaurs age) Nintendo has been regarded as 'soon to be dead'. Same with PC gaming. It just didn't happen over and over again.