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Comment by pedalpete | Hacker News Reader

As a software engineer who just turned 40 and starting a new position in the coming weeks, I've been giving some thought lately to the future of our profession, and I'm wondering if we're at the high-point in the salary scale, and if we'll see average salaries decline from this point on.

The reason I suspect this might be the case is the combination of the popularity of programming, along with the tools which are making programming easier.

Every year a new framework/library is introduced which makes the challenging and time consuming work easier and easier.

Are we reaching a point where we have a massive number of programmers doing a job which takes a fraction of the time it took years ago?

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New frameworks might make our work easier, but companies don't typically respond by employing fewer developers. Instead, they ask for bigger and larger projects.

As for people actually learning to code, I don't actually think there's much risk of increased supply. The majority of people simply cannot think in the logical manner programming requires. They might learn a couple bits here and there, but they'll never be employed as engineers. (I've seen this myself with people who've taken months of classes—ask them to compute a program and they're still incapable.)

Put simply, CS is hard. That's why, despite the general awesomeness of our careers, so few people major in it. (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/04/students-majoring-i...)

I know it's a cliche, but I do think there's a difference between the lone high school weirdo who stayed up late learning Commodore 64/Apple IIe/386/whatever internals and the person who learned how to program adequately well at university in order to get a "good career". I hesitate to use the word "passion" but you know what I mean.

Anyway, the long and the short of it is it's the weirdos who are in short supply and I can't imagine why that would change anytime soon.

That really applies to most other fields. Some people are just bad at their job. Some people are good and some are amazing.

My suspicion was that larger projects done with better tools results in near equal amount of time invested.

Everything you say could be right, I still struggle to understand how people who call themselves programmers can't do fizzbuzz, but one of the great things about being a programmer is that you don't have to go to University and get a degree (I didn't), so I don't think the linked article really provides much input. Interesting read though.

As tools get better, we'll build more complex things. There is still a lot of work to do. But yeah, if you are in the business of putting up WordPress sites, then you'll probably see your salary decrease as more people start doing this without the help of a developer.

I think demand for development skills is going to continue to increase.

While there does seem to be an increased popularity, there is still a number of people who exit the profession either due to burn-out or retirement.

Anecdotally, in the UK there has been concern for some-time about the number of people retiring from technology positions in the financial sector (people in there 50s due to very generous retirement provisions); industry crunches like this along with 'software eating the world' would suggest to me that the good times will continue for some time.

The word of warning I'd have is more around the economics of VC finance - money is cheap right now, if/when interest rates rise there might be an impact on the amount of money available to start-ups. But it's not like any other industry/profession is going to be unaffected by macro-economic issues.

Yep. Every developer's greatest fear should be that so many new, young people are learning to code that the base salary will dive dramatically in the next 10 years. That's why I want to start a campaign called "Don't code." Trying to prevent young minds for learning the trade. I like being in high demand.

Reverse argument, for context, I'm just about to graduate from a mediocre state university in the mid-west:

Not all of the young minds that are "learning to code" really have the potential to write programs at the same level as the average ValleyBoy RoR Jockey™ (or even the average casual Hacker News reading hobbyist coder). The number of students in my program that had massive interest in our numbers ( 100% placement with the highest average starting pay ) and almost zero interest in actually learning to code is frightening.

These students tend to slither through the technical classes with a lot of help from google and their friends, only to find themselves unable to compete for real developer positions and settling for the same 4x,xxx "business analyst" warm body jobs that seem to be the holy grail of the hoards of non-stem degree holders.

On the flip side, if you can actually get fizz buzz to compile and can stomach the idea of living in the midwest, prepare to be wined and dined by everyone under the sun.

Not everyone learns to program because they want to devote their life to code and worship the bit gods. I am in a similar situation as you and I have noticed quite a few students like you mentioned. My question is, whats so wrong with them getting a degree/job doing something they enjoy even if they aren't a rockstar at it? Is it so wrong for someone to want a 9-5 job doing something they enjoy? Yes they can't compete for "real" developer positions, but maybe they don't want to live in the valley and work 80 hours a week on a Facebook for cats and then hope Google buys their company. The truth of the matter is there is a ton of crappy code all over the world making things run and making people money. You don't need to be a rockstar to be valuable to a company so long as you get things done. I'm not activating mediocrity, I'm simply suggesting that programming isn't some exclusive of club for obsessed geniuses.

In regards to the Midwest, I know. Who would possibly want to live in one of the most beautiful parts of the US, surrounded by lush forests, the Great Lakes, and friendly people who say hi when you walk by?

I absolutely agree with everything you wrote (particularly the last paragraph, as a Duluth MN resident nothing will beat the view over Superior)

Nothing is wrong with the path these students are choosing, I just don't see business analysts creating specs or writing user stories in the same competition for career roles as myself. Even though I intend to stay in the midwest and generally detest the culture of excess in the valley I was replying to the parent saying the influx of people learning to write "hello world" in java and make visio diagrams or project workflows won't have a measurable impact on the people currently making money building productive software (regardless of weather that software is immaculately well structured or a snarling mess of perpetual spaghetti) .

I don't feel like there should be any real concern within the next 5 years, but I do believe that within the next 10+ years, we could see a major shift in salaries.

I don't have any data, but nothing will continue "going up forever"...

> I don't have any data, but nothing will continue "going up forever"...

Take a look at historical production per hour over the past few decades or centuries. It's been going up "forever".

What we have seen in the physical world is that the people who reap the wages of this productivity has been shifting to the holders of capital (physical capital, land, finance, etc). In software, there's very little need for physical capital (factories) and land - "holders of capital" really means "holders of human capital"; i.e. intellectual capital. I do believe productivity will continue to increase, and since programmers own their own minds (human capital), they will see the wages.

Perhaps when software projects start to consistently be completed ahead of schedule. I'm not holding my breath.

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