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What happens when the honest miners fluke it and solve a block early, before the dishonest miners decide to publish theirs...?

Wouldn't this ruin any and all gains the honest miners have, nulling all the blocks they have mined 'ahead'...

I think in the long run (repeat the process hundreds of times), there would still be an advantage to the selfish miners.

Edit: Here's a simulation written by Dan Kaminsky. http://pastebin.com/PfBhLc7r