My guess is that, due to Apple and Google's expertise in touch screen and motion capture software, you won't see any new players coming out of the woodwork with a new phone everybody wants.
That said, the crowdsourcing of Firefox and Ubuntu phones could potentially disrupt things a little longer come 2014.
In the software (App-store) space, Amazon is pretty aggressive about taking on Google. I can't say that I've heard of any of them, but Wikipedia list another dozen live third-party Android app-stores: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_software_distrib...
It's hard to predict where the iOS ecosystem is going. It's definitely got momentum, but controlled, mono-culture ecosystems are vulnerable and iOS devices are definitely fashion-devices with all the fickleness that comes with that territory.
What does that have to do with anything? Samsung is the largest smartphone maker and you didn't even mention them. Xiaomi is likely to be a huge force in the next couple years. I'm sure there will be more.
Samsung sells lots of phones: how many of those phones are running Tizen (né Bada)?
I think the point the OP was trying to make is that it's highly unlikely we'll see a company collapse to the extent that RIM/BlackBerry did unless there's a major paradigm shift in mobile technology. Are Xiaomi going to be driving that? I'm not sure.
... Except in profits.
Exactly. You WILL see new players coming out of the woordwork with a new, post-phone device everybody wants.
I'm not claiming I know what it is. But its emergence is a certainty.