Golfers More Likely To Make Par Putt than Birdie Putt of Same Length | Hacker News Reader

Golfers More Likely To Make Par Putt than Birdie Putt of Same Length

nytimes.com

25 pointslukas10 comments

I golf a lot, and this seems like A "No kidding..." type of statement to me.

Birdie putts are less common, even for great golfers, and so when it comes up everyone tends to put a little bit more pressure on themselves, consciously or unconsciously, to capitalize on the birdie putt.

Even when you have a short one (less than 5 feet) you friends will say "Oh, don't miss..." etc.

The point of the article is that great golfers are OK with not capitalizing on the birdie putt, but a bogey is to be avoided.

Edit: Apparently I should clarify. The golfers are putting more pressure on themselves to make par and avoid a bogey score. On the putt for birdie, they are not putting too much pressure on themselves; instead they are OK with settling for a par score so they take shots that aren't as risky. In other words, it's more important to them to avoid a bogey score than it is to capitalize on the birdie putt.

you want to avoid a bogey because it starts a vicious cycle. assuming you are at par, a bogey requires a birdie just to get back to par. going for that birdie risks another bogie that would require another birdie to balance, and so on. playing in this highly volatile manner you run a higher risk of having to make great shots in order to end up with an average score. it's more in your favor to wait until you make a great shot (say a great second shot on a par 4 that leaves you two feet from the hole) and then capitalize on the "free" consequence (the two foot birdie putt) that actually takes you above average than to be forced to sink a 50 foot birdie just to stay at average (because you missed par on the previous hole).

Maybe I don't understand because I'm bad at golf and don't get a whole lot of birdie putts, but when I do I always go for it because getting a birdie is great, and getting a bogie is pretty average for me. I've never once just hoped to get it close, even for an eagle.

I think this can be explained by the different level of competition. It sounds like you're a more casual player, at least when compared to the players mentioned in the article.

This article shows a tendency among many of today's economists to make the mistake of thinking they know it all. For all they know, there is some hidden benefit to avoiding bogeys and settling for pars. Maybe even one bogey would hurt your morale far more than a birdie would help it, especially if you're a great player. Maybe there isn't an easy way to avoid that effect, and it affects how well you play. Who knows? That could easily serve as a rational justification for this behavior. But most economists have bought in to the idea that they know exactly what is rational and what isn't.

Are you getting this from economists, or news article about economists? The entire foundation of economics is variable preferences, after all. (Well, the sensible, measurable bits, anyhow.)

It's still an observed difference between what the human claims to value and what their actions say they actually value, and that's still a worthy topic of study.

Are you getting this from economists, or news article about economists?

Both. It's tempting to gloss over uncertainties sometimes.

The entire foundation of economics is variable preferences, after all. (Well, the sensible, measurable bits, anyhow.)

I agree, especially with your parenthetical.

Maybe because they're so excited that they might make birdie on the hole that they lose their concentration?

If you read the article, this doesn't seem to be the reason. Many golfers admit that they're more interested in avoiding bogey than making birdie.

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