Those Comics in Your Basement? Probably Worthless
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Basically card collecting now is a big gamble. You can buy $100 packs and they either have some common value cards worth maybe $5 or you might pull a great card that you can probably sell for $5K. Only a small percentage of people come out of it as a "winner" but because of the rush people get from pulling these special cards they continue to be bought. And even though $100 seems out of reach for kids, I have seen tons of videos on YouTube of kids who buy these packs.
And since there is only one company now that can produce baseball cards (out of maybe 3-4 total card producing companies), they need to make their money back from buying the license from MLBPA/MLB so they essentially glut the market with tons and tons of different sets. Allen Ginter, Gypsy Queen, Bowman (there was ~3 different sets of Bowman released the last time I collected, and Bowman generally is for rookie/minor leaguers and since most of them will probably not make it to the majors, the set is going to contain a lot of useless cards/inserts), Topps, and some other sets they sell at like >$500 per pack.
And the people on Craigslists who think their sealed 1992 Topps sets are worth any more than ~$5 or people who are selling those huge boxes of 80s/90s cards for $200 is laughable. You could literally burn half the world's supply of 80s/90s baseball cards and those cards would still probably be just as worthless. Just a huge, huge, worthless glut of cardboard.
Edit: Took out roulette comment, made no sense.
The major reason was that it was a way to be involved with MLB. It was fun trading with friends to try to get your favorite players and complete a team or a set. It's Pokemon without the game attached - gotta get 'em all!
Where the wheels fell off was were kids were priced out of the market. 50 cents would buy you a pack of Topps, Donruss, or Fleer - about 30 cards in a pack. But then the infamous 1988 Upper Deck set that introduced thick white card stock, foil wrappers, and holographic seals. $1.50 or more for a pack of 12 (I think). They were somewhat limited and successful, so everyone followed suit. Fleer Ultra. Donruss made the Leaf name premium. Skybox for the NBA. Eventually Topps came out with their Stadium Club cards that were just plain stupid - $5 for a pack of 12. At that point, I was out.
Therefore, actually having market prices as sold (eBay) rather than having what 'Stanley Gibbons' (stamps) will sell you something for - is bringing an important reality check to things.
But to make it more shady, Beckett now offers grading services for the very cards it prices.
Once people think something is a collectible, it's no longer wise to collect it.
This happened in the UK to stamp collectors who took pride in owning every first day cover. Royal Mail realised they could increase revenue by massively increasing the number of new stamp designs issued, and collectors railed against the escalating cost of keeping their collections complete.
See also Warhammer, Disney Inifinity, and a bunch of other pay-to-play endeavours.
Unwise indeed.
1) Super Spiderman vs Hulk penned by Mcfarlane 2) Punisher vs Wolvering series 3) Xmen mutant massacre cross over series
These comics of my youth are still tucked away at my parent's house with acid free backing and plastic for the past 20+ years. Anyways, sometimes I will go into comic book stores to peruse, and I'm often happy to discover that many of the comics my cousins and I thought would make the big time wall are now there. However, the big shock is, the prices they command are far below what we thought they would be. Some are $5-10. A few maybe $15. I mean, for the price we paid, I think it was $1.25 or 1.50, that may sound pretty decent. But, that's only half the story. Most comic book shops will only pay 50% of the market value of any collectables. So, that $10 comic will only probably net $5. After 20 years, it's not really worth it.
But, there is one happy outcome of all this. My love of finding good stories that I think one day will become worth something has led me to stocks and investing. I think my comic book collector mentality translated well to stock picking and investing. I love finding a good business story and investing in it. That's how I found Netflix, Google, and Tesla. These companies made me FAR more money than any comic book has or probably ever will.
This has always been one of those things that seems ludicrous to me about the US comics market. In Europe, in many market it is common to assume 3-4 readers to each comic when selling advertising etc. Comics would get passed around the family, loaned to friends etc.
While in the US, it's the opposite: The number of comics sold is usually assumed to be higher than the number of readers.
So, to answer, no, not really. I'm actually mostly in cash now.
http://www.amazon.com/40-Years-X-Men-Complete-Collection/dp/...
There are a lot of hard feelings about this in the comic-collector community. I did lose years of what I expected to be an investment. At the same time, I get to read the entire history of Hulk comics at a fraction of the cost.
Due to some of the current decks like "dredge", for example, has sent the price of "Bazaar of Baghdad" into the $250-$450 range, and "Library of Alexandria" has always been in the >$200 range.
As for Antiquities... a "Mishra's Workshop" is likely more useful than the traditional power-9 right now, and is /easily/ worth >$400.
Given how little a single card weighs, some of those might just be worth their weight in gold. Even without those very-high-price cards, though, there's a lot of newer players that just want stuff from those older sets in general. It's pretty rare to see <$1 cards like you do with the newer sets, and /many/ are in the $15/25 range, so a couple boxes of cards could easily be worht a decent amount.
Re: this article - like any investment based on fads and nostalgia like comix, MTG cards, tulips... it's only the people that got in at the beginning that get much profit out of it. Jumping on the bandwagon later on when it's now known to a lot of people is never going to work - there's obviously a lot of others people doing the same thing, and saturating the market.
Those of you luck enough to have bought in before it was big, though... can get really lucky some times.
I think all the beta dual-lands a good friend of mine likes to play with make any deack their in >$20k O.O
/i only found out about the game during The Dark, which is just barely on th eline of "too recent", unfortunately.
My guess for today's "rare nostalgia collector's item" of the far future?
Those Skylanders/Disney Infinity statues, if they don't need an auth server to run. Especially the original "Spyro's Adventure" ones.
Alternately, BeyBlades and the like, since those take terrible wear when the kids play with them. Then again, I can't think of many other brutalized collectible children's toy fads of my youth that are popular with collectors today - it's not like Pogs are a big item.
My advice would be to sell them now. They aren't going to be worth much more than they are now in 10 years.
Currently Wizards of Coast has a no-reprint policy on most of the old high-value cards. While I don't know that I would invest in them, until that policy changes the value of those old cards is pretty steady. Paper is still the best way to play Magic, so not sure when this will change.
Also, currently, Wizard's attempts at making software is like a model for the federal healthcare rollout, ie: very bad.
One other difference in Magic, is that people actually use them to play games. There were actually a lot of older cards I still have that were nearly worthless for a while that shot up in value over the last few years as a certain version of Magic (EDH) became popular.
Still, not something I would buy for investment purposes, but I buy a lot of magic cards just because I enjoy playing the game. Cardboard Crack, as my friends like to call it. Also, once a junky, always a junky, they all come back after a while.
If only...
Truth? It's more popular than ever [1], and the Power 9 cards are still worth hundreds, if not thousands.
[1]: http://www.wizards.com/magic/magazine/article.aspx?x=mtg/dai...
Card value depends on a number of factors, notably usability in one of the game's "formats". A card printed today, that is both rare and very useable in many decks and/or formats, will cost anywhere from $5 to $60. A single card.
An entire deck? http://magic.tcgplayer.com/db/deck.asp?deck_id=1167954
That's the deck that won one of the most recent tournaments. Average price of $630 for the entire set.
Point being, you can blow your savings on today's cards, let alone ancient ones.
Suppose we were to buy a good sized supply of paper of the same kind and from the same manufacturer that Marvel prints its books on. And suppose we were also do the same thing with the ink Marvel uses, and the staples Marvel uses.
Then we wait 40 or 50 years, and look back to identify the books that turned out to be very valuable in hind site, but did not appear so when they were new. For instance, books like Journey into Mystery #83. Journey into Mystery was an anthology series. It had started out, I believe, as horror, and slowly changed to science fiction. In #83, one of the stories was of a Norse god, Thor, in our world.
Nothing about that stood out to alert people that this was the start of something big, and so maybe they would want to buy extra copies to preserve. Just another new character in a book with new characters all th time. But this one WAS different...more Thor stories appeared, and he became a feature in every issue, and gradually they stopped having non-Thor stories and the book became The Mighty Thor.
Anyway, we look back and identify a book that we now see was another Journey into Mystery #83 (which, BTW, is worth something like $50k now). Then we reprint it, on our 50 year old paper, using our 50 year old ink, and stapled with our 50 year old staples. Then we age it for a few years (I'm guessing that ink diffuses some through the paper and so experts could easily tell if a page has been freshly printed).
Is this a viable evil plan?
Generally, physical items undergo somewhat predictable physical changes as they age, allowing experts to determine the approximate age of an item. To counterfeit with an acceptable level of risk, we need our counterfeit to appear to be the right age. I'm asking if using authentic period paper, ink, and staples would be sufficient, or are there aging effects that depend on how long the ink has actually been applied to the paper?
I think a couple things kill the prices:
- A lot were produced.
- It's much easier to find and sell them. (Thank you eBay)
- Softcopy as a medium doesn't appeal to today's buyers.
I wonder if Comixology will go after older properties.
They already are. They do have some issues going back to the 30's. It's just spotty, and generally seems to be driven by "special events", e.g. they seem to have filled in bits and pieces related to Guardians of the Galaxy with the newest series in the run-up to the movie.
Also, I expect they're also affected by poor archiving in early years - I know some publishers outside the US used to just dump excess stock and sell off or give away originals without ensuring they had proper archive copies.
Many of them have had to buy individual issues from collectors when wanting to do reprints etc.
Nike and other sneaker companies are pumping out so called "collectable" sneaker to sneaker heads. These people, tempted to say kids but I know too many adults who do this as well, buy the sneakers at $200 and never wear them. Or there are some like the kid in this story http://abcnews.go.com/Business/teenage-sneakerheads-bet-thou... who camp out and buy them only to resell them on eBay right away for double to triple the price.
There is definitely a bubble going on here and someone like me who is very interested in economics and have many friends who are into the sneaker scene, but not as hardcore as a lot of these people, it is going to be interesting to watch it go pop.
http://www.marketplace.org/topics/life/how-one-family-went-b...
My pay-off on my comics, collected during that crazy mid-1990's boom, is that my kids are getting three long boxes of 1980's-1990's Chris Claremont and Peter David awesomeness and fun.
Pay it forward.
The second edition is still the current edition, and still in use at Caltech and a few other top schools...and is around $220 for volume I and around $170 for volume II. (Apparently, Apostol never got the word that calculus books need to be revised every year to keep up with the rapid pace of research in freshman mathematics...)
That's 6.8% growth per year for volume I, which is not bad.
From running Zistle.com I can say that in sports cards at least, these 'bubbles' in price are often correlated to current events. I can guarantee there is a spike in the prices for Ortiz cards right now and in 6-12 months they will go back to normal.
These articles totally miss the fact that the savvy collectors in the market are always the ones selling the cards during the peak and not buying. During Linsanity, there were Jeremy Lin basketball cards selling for several thousand dollars and now you can pick them up for a couple of bucks. Savvy collectors knew that this was their moment to make money and they took advantage of it. That was the peak of the market. If you want to know who is profiting in the collectibles market, it is the people who pay close enough attention to what is hot right now and not people who wrap items up in their closet for 20 years.
Right now? Nintendos and stuff like that. Not comicbooks. In the future? I don't know. Digital goods lack scarcity, but if I would have to guess I would say a nice assembly of all the stuff they may have thought they lost (like the blog I deleted after I entered university).
That said, I noticed that most used LPs are still dirt cheap -- while there is demand, it seems that it's just not large enough to put a dent in the supply. It also seems very difficult to sell old collections unless you truly have some rarities or good music that never made the digital transition).
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142412788732426340...
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142405297020457370...
Unlike comic books and baseball cards, there was never a hype of LP as being a collector item. Furthermore, they are essentially not being manufactured any more. They are difficult to care for, and many of them been destroyed by improper use. And they deliver the authentic, and some say the best, audio experience.
How to care for LPs:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vinyl_disc_records_preservation
Effectively, they don’t. It just looks like they do, because compared to CDs, LPs do sell. But, nobody buys CDs or any physical media with music anymore.
Physical media are still a $1.5 Billion/year business in the U.S. alone.
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Music_industry go about halfway down the page.
First, magnetic tape deteriorates over time, so 8tr and reels have a physically limited lifespan. Secondly, playback technology for vinyl continues to improve, and due to the nature of analog recording, the quality of the sound in playback improves as well.
Old records played on new equipment sound better than they did when they were new (given equal condition of the physical object). CDs and MP3s, because they're digital and locked to a sample rate and bit depth, will only ever sound as good as they did when they were manufactured, speaker improvements aside. You simply can't squeeze any more information out of 16bit/48kHz the way you can out of an analog recording.
This is not to argue CD vs. vinyl or sound coloration or any of those cans of worms.
However, the bronze age - yep. Very little there worth much.
Even if there weren't a million bagged-and-boarded copies of Rob Liefeld's Bludd Gunn McShootDeath and the X-Murder Y-Bunch #0.5 sitting in people's basements, it still wouldn't be worth anything because hardly anybody cares about those characters. Even classic runs from the 80s and 90s (Walt Simonson's Thor, Morrison's JLA, Sandman, etc.) haven't had anything like the cultural impact and recognition that major Golden and Silver Age titles did outside of comic circles.
The 90's killed much of the comic book collecting market. Marvel and DC fed speculators hunger for variant covers, limited editions and multiple lines of books with the same characters.
I can remember going to a comic book store in the early 90s when the Death of Superman issue came out, hoping to snag one of the coveted issues sporting an all black bag with a bloody S on the front. My 8 year old self was basically laughed out the door, saying they'd all be bought up or were selling for multiples of the cover price. That really killed a lot of my spirit for collecting. I just recently got back into comics, but purely for the enjoyment of reading them, so I buy digitally nearly 100% of the time.
Digital comics are interesting, they remove the speculating, collecting and coveting of comics for some perceived monetary value and put the content front and center, which is where it should be.
Meanwhile, for comparison, a market like Norway, with 5 million people, have at various times had multiple series selling more than 100k copies a month. Donald Duck & Co. for a many years sold 150k copies a week.
More importantly, readership here is usually estimated at 3-5 readers per copy, as opposed to more than one copy per reader in the US, as copies would pass around the family and get lent out to friends.
In France, some new issues of the top selling album titles, like Tintin, Asterix and Spirou et Fantasio, have sold in millions in France alone.
"My brother has a sizable warehouse full of old comics. It's just yet more inventory he needs to move. You'll be lucky to get $1 a book."
It sounds like things are even more dire these days.
The collectible market comes and goes, I'll just wait till it comes back around in 20 or 30 years I guess.
When I was a kid, we were forced to buy the rare commodity to enjoy the story. We'd even pool our money to do so. (I have a friend that had every IronMan up until about 1998, for example). Now, you can find out about backstory by reading Wikipedia. And you can either buy legitimate digital copies, or download illegal versions...
Pocket watches are one interesting example. The majority of nice old pieces from the late 19th century are worth only $50-$80. It's something that seemed obviously valuable to people so nobody threw them away, even once they went out of fashion in actual use. So there are literally millions of pocket watches out there still, since everyone has their grandfather's old watch. And they regularly appear on eBay, keeping the market supplied. Even if a large proportion are cannibalized for parts or lost, it's still enough supply that collectors' demand doesn't push prices very high.
Is that enough to drive up the price?
If you examine the behavior of certain other thin markets, like art, this happens. The action of paying a record high price for something is because you own more of that item.
It may happen with financial markets as well, but it requires a whole lot more money.
My suggestion for any collectibles is first see if you can even find the item available on ebay, amazon, abebooks, etc. If its not, then that is a good sign. If there are a lot available and they aren't selling (watch the listing a week), then its worth a lot less than the asking prices.
Now I let my kids read them. Granted, I still say "ok, wash your hands before you read them and put them back in the sleeves when you're done". I'd like to think that even if they're almost worthless 20 years from now in a less-than-pristine state, somebody besides myself has enjoyed them.
I taught my kids how to read the same way that I learned, reading Spidey Super Stories comics from the 1970s. They were just a few bucks at my local comic book shop, and worth every penny.