Only 6 people managed to enroll in an insurance plan on Day 1 of Healthcare.gov
washingtonpost.com
washingtonpost.com
So you're telling me that more people who are getting free benefits showed up to the party than people who have to pay significant annual premiums? Shocking. I think they need new "experts".
My point was mostly that if their "experts" can't think critically about the incentive system the program creates, what else will they be surprised about? Adverse selection? Insurer bankruptcy and industry consolidation?
Pay 10-15% of your pre-tax income for a plan under Obamacare
I don't think it's going to work out that great.
This, my friend, is called adverse selection.
And while I don't think you were addressing this, millions will lose their now outlawed plans on January 1.
I see this as a huge impending disaster that could turn public sentiment against ACA to the point that it does get repealed. If people get their old plans cancelled and it is very difficult to use healthcare.gov to sign up for a new plan, a lot of people are going to be left in the lurch.
Unfortunately the horse is already out of the barn and into the next county. Maybe by a stroke of luck healthcare.gov will be functioning smoothly at the end of November like Obama and company have said it would. But I'd be willing to bet this will not be the case, given all the problems that project has to deal with.
Even if a massive effort were put underway to stand up call centers so people could navigate the healthcare exchanges over the phone, it would still need to be administered via a computer system, there's little chance a wide-scale paper process could be put in place quickly at this point.
On the one hand it's around 5% of the population, and unless you need subsidies, you can get policies directly from the insurers, and there are private comparison shopping sites.
On the other hand, most will have to pay more money, often a LOT more, often for worse coverage in ways they most care about, and this small fraction of the population includes some of the most influential. Maybe ... the rules of that seem to be changing, this could in fact be a good test of the recent Angelo Codevilla et. al. modern US ruling and country classes thesis.
BlueCross BlueShield; Deductible: $5,000, Co-Insurance: 0%, Doctor Visit: 1-2 $30 co-pay deductible waved, Cost: $98 /month
BlueCross BlueShield; Deductible: $5,000, Co-Insurance: 0%, Doctor Visit: 1-2 $30 co-pay deductible waved, Cost: $66 /month,
The closest ACA compliant option to the above...
BlueCross BlueShield; Deductible: $6,000, Co-Insurance: 0%, Doctor Visit: no charge after deductible, Cost: $130 /month
So in summary you are looking at paying somewhere between 32% and 97% more money, and don't get the benefit of 1-2 low cost doctors visits per year.
In addition to guaranteed issue, the Obamacare plans have (1) an annual out-of-pocket limit (2) no annual or lifetime limit on benefits (3) an absolute right to renewal.
These features raise the cost substantially compared to previous plans on the individual market. The classic example is if you get cancer and need $2 million in treatment. If your plan had 20% coinsurance, or a $1 million lifetime limit, then you'd be in rough shape. And if the insurance company dropped you when you got sick, on the grounds that you forgot to disclose some trivial and unrelated illness on your application, then you'd be in really rough shape.
The things that make Obamacare expensive are the features that don't show up on the sticker -- because they are now required of all plans. Guaranteed issue is the major one, because they prevent sick people from being washed out of the actuarial pool. All of these features are things that you hope you will never need to "take advantage" of. If you waste your money buying them, that's actually not a bad outcome.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pre-existing_condition#Current_...
I've talked to dozens of people since then and come to the conclusion that "functioning human female reproductive system" is, in essence, a coverage-denying preexisting condition in many US states.
Another thing that happens --- particularly in California, lest you think this is an IL problem --- is that comparatively minor medical conditions were used as proxies for rare but expensive conditions. For instance, if you were a woman with abnormal cramping, you might be default-denied based on a simple blacklist of uninsurable conditions because insurers were scared that might presage something expensive down the road.
The preexisting condition and recission policies of insurers prior to Obamacare were a national disgrace.
But I think that's small potatoes (the number of patients likely to exceed any reasonable lifetime coverage limitations has got to be tiny, and cheaply re-insurable by BCBS if needed). The real cost is likely coming from BCBS' estimate of the change in the risk pool characteristics of this new plan. Namely, it doesn't matter how healthy you are to sign up for the new one, so presumably on average it will be made up of less healthy people. There's also the cost-shifting that has to happen: Plans for older people can only be a set multiple (3x?) more expensive than for younger people, so the younger person's plan must be made more expensive. This is called cost-sharing if you're being polite, and a redistribution scheme if not.
Coupled with the claim that plans based on the new floor for coverage would be at least affordable. Which many are finding invidious because they can't afford the replacement policies that are initially offered by their existing insurers. With all subsidy calculations tied to the Federal site, those who might get a subsidy aren't able to find out for sure without generally extreme levels of effort, although subsidy calculators are available, like the Kaiser Foundation's: http://kff.org/interactive/subsidy-calculator/
Prime example: the "Affordable Care Act" isn't about health care, it is about health insurance.
My PPO had a $2,500 deductible and I thought that was insanity.
[1]http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/10/29/r...
Politifact has a ruling: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2012/mar/20/...
Everyone is fighting over the validity and constitutionality of this law, instead of informing the public about what they need to do to avoid financial penalties. The debate will rage on no matter what, but whether or not you agree with this law (and I don't), the priority right now should be to help people make an informed decision about their compliance.
http://americablog.com/2013/10/original-1989-document-herita...
It was essentially a bipartisan reform bill. Had Bush proposed the bill, Republicans would likely have voted en masse for it.
As for the Constitutionality of it, the Supreme Court disagrees.
As for it being "the Republicans' plan", you're hanging an awful lot on some Republicans' support for an individual mandate (conceived, remember, in opposition to Bill Clinton's nascent proposals for an employer mandate) twenty years ago. The guy who most Republicans actually voted for wanted to change the system to allow health care plans to be sold across state lines, and de-couple employment and health care via a universal individual tax credit [2]. Neither of those are in PPACA.
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leahy-Smith_America_Invents_Act
[2] http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2008/10/the-mccain-...
The Republicans created the current plan. The most recent Republican candidate for President supported and passed this plan in his home state when he was governor. It's a Republican plan.
The Republicans have no serious alternative proposal. They pretend they do only to the extent needed to convince people who aren't paying attention that they really mean the "replace" part of "repeal and replace".
Sure, Obamacare isn't exactly the Republican plan in 100% of every detail. It's still the basic Republican plan overall, and the Republicans are not wrangling over details anyway.
http://douthat.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/22/why-not-medicaid...
Short version: Subsidized catastrophic care for real "insurance", and tax-advantaged HSA's for your more predictable medical costs. The former probably still requires something like the existing individual mandate, so it's unfortunate that Republicans seized on that as one of their primary objections to PPACA (an objection that Candidate Obama shared in 2008!)
More practically, a Republican alternative would certainly not have made these catastrophic plans currently being cancelled illegal.
This stuff is not fiddling around the margins: PPACA will only work if it substantially shifts costs from the old and sick (who need comprehensive plans) to the young and healthy (who would typically be fine with catastrophic ones). I don't know why you would expect the GOP to be happy about a wealth transfer like that, particularly when they couldn't expect to extract any leverage from their participation with a Democratic super-majority able to pass whatever it could agree on. All for a bill whose popular support never seriously cracked 50%? I wish Democrats had engaged with President Bush in '05 when he came out of the reelect gate for Social Security reform, rather then declare the whole thing DOA. But I certainly am not shocked they behaved like an opposition.
In any case, I don't see how that approach is ultimately very different. Sure, it means people cover a bit more stuff out of pocket, and places a higher burden on sick poor people, but overall it's pretty much the same.
The ultimate question that has to be answered is this: do we, as a society, find it acceptable to allow people to die of treatable illnesses when they can't afford to pay for the treatment? This question has been solidly answered as "no" in the US for some decades now, ever since hospitals were barred from turning away patients in the emergency room. The question now is simply how you accomplish it.
So, back to these subsidized catastrophic plans. You'll have to have a mandate on them! Without a mandate, people who aren't sick won't buy them unless you hold some other threat over their head, such as denying them the ability to obtain insurance if they're already sick.
Unless we're going to let people die, the wealth transfer you describe has to happen in some way. Pre-Obamacare, it works using a de-facto hidden employment tax whereby better-off people pay, in a really convoluted fashion, for the unpaid bills of poor people. With Obamacare, it works by forcing people to get insurance even if they don't want it. The Republican idea discussed in your link is some combination of the two, and exactly what the combination is depends on the exact details.
Obamacare is just about the most free-market solution for universal health coverage you can come up with. It's more free-market than the pre-Obamacare regime, it was proposed by Republicans, and it was passed by Republicans in Massachusetts just a few years prior to becoming law at the national level. And lest we think that those Massachusetts Republicans were some fringe group, they nominated the governor for President! Why should I expect Republicans to object to it for any reason other than being the political party of Crazy?
Ross Douthat is one of the New York Times tame "conservatives"; I haven't read that particular piece by him, especially since I'm not familiar with all the proposals by various people on that side so I can't critique it, but I can say you can't denounce our side on the basis of anything he portrays.
"[Obamacare] was passed by Republicans in Massachusetts just a few years prior to becoming law at the national level."
This must be some new definition of the word passed I wasn't previously acquainted with. The quickest refutation is can find is that the lower house has been Democratic since 1955. In 2006, 35 out of the 40 upper house seats were held by Democrats. It has long been a one party state by the time I showed up in 1979, with the occasional RINOs for flavor.
Anyway, you keep claiming things can be "bi-partisan" without Republican votes, a result that can only be achieved by twisting the word beyond recognition.
You're confounding the current eGOP, as in Establishment GOP, which controls the nominating process, with many of its "completely nuts" elected officials and its base, who've many times in the last few decades declined to (re)elect RINOs, i.e. G. H. W. Bush in 1992, Bob "Tax Collector for the Welfare State" Dole in 1996, McCain, who had a hereditary vicious tempter which he turned on the base after not getting the 2000 nomination.
And Romney, the sort of NE liberal/progressive Republican (granted, an old wing of the party, see e.g. Rockefeller vs. Goldwater in 1964, or Teddy Roosevelt after the previous turn of the century) who could win in overwhelmingly liberal and Democratic Massachusetts. It was the only state in the entire freaking nation to vote for McGovern in 1972 (along with D.C.) after all, "acid, amnesty and abortion", baby!
(Amnesty for Vietnam era draft dodgers, delivered by Carter.)
Seriously, what? What sane definition of "Republican" could possibly exclude Mitt Romney? How the hell am I supposed to know who you do and do not include in "Republican" if that's how you're going to be?
Again, you claim "bipartisanship" for Obamacare without evidence of votes or the signing of legislation.
As for "sane" definitions, with the end of various systems of party discipline, anyone who calls themselves a Republican or Democrat is one. But that doesn't mean you can't distinguish between different types. Again, go back to after the turn of the century, the feud and eventual party split between progressive Theodore Roosevelt and conservative William Howard Taft, which gave us Woodrow Wilson.
I also said it's "as bi-partisan as you can get". That's not a very high bar to clear, I hope you realize. My point is not that there's some imaginary outpouring of Republican support for the idea, but simply that Republican opposition to it is not rooted in any alternative. Obamacare is as bi-partisan as you can get. There is nothing that would be more bi-partisan than that, unless you count "nothing" as something.
Based on history, based on candidates, based on policy, Republicans should support Obamacare. It's their plan! But they don't, because they've become a mindless opposition. Their policy is whatever the Democrats are against. They no longer define themselves, but merely are the negative of their opponents.
That's all I'm saying. There's no alternative health care form that both parties could get behind. Obamacare is the closest you can get in the current climate. The idea that we should delay Obamacare in order to figure out a true bi-partisan reform bill is fantasy, because there is none.
There are obviously people here who both simultaneously think ACA might not be a positive public policy and are not mindless. Some of them might even be registered Republicans. Your constant repetition of the claim that voting for Mitt Romney was somehow an endorsement of a national version of Romneycare when the candidate himself explicitly campaigned on the opposite is, not to put too fine a point on it, silly. It is 100% consistent with federalist principles to believe that Romneycare might be great for the voters of MA, single payer might be great for the voters of VT, but that Obamacare is bad for the voters of the USA. It's also not inconsistent to believe that Romneycare was a horrible idea, but that Romney was still preferable to the alternative Republican candidates and/or preferable to President Obama.
Not so much silly, but an example of revolutionary truth.
We "mindless" opponents of ACA are wedded to bourgeois truth.
[Much omitted.]
This will not end well.
Describing comprehensive health care coverage and catastrophic insurance as "pretty much the same" is factually inaccurate and misses the point of Douthat's piece.
Consumers right now have essentially no motivation to choose a $30,000 maternity bed over a $50,000 one. Third party payment disrupts price signals and encourages overspending. Sure, there are a variety of ways to try to contain costs through centralized oversight or "per capita" reimbursement schemes, but the GOP, at least, believes that nothing works like a competitive market. Laser eye surgery is perhaps the canonical example: It's not covered by most insurance, so providers have had to compete on cost, and the result has been a rapid increase in availability and affordability. That's a free market, and it's nothing like how the vast majority of health care will be paid for post-ACA.
No, you're not going to pick which emergency room is cheaper when you're having a heart attack. Catastrophes are different, that's why you insure against them. But someone who's getting frequent treatment for a chronic disease should absolutely be allowed to consider visiting a less expensive clinic over a research hospital and pocket some of the resulting savings.
Why should I expect Republicans to object to it for any reason other than being the political party of Crazy?
That you think a plan passed by a ridiculously Democratic legislature in Massachusetts and signed by a fairly moderate Republican governor represents the will of the national Republican party is maybe not capital-C "Crazy", but it does call into question how focused you are on the realities of U.S. politics. Did you not notice what a huge stone that was around Romney's neck during the primaries, to the point that he had to make one of his key campaign pledges repealing ACA on "Day 1"?
Remember when Bill Clinton got NAFTA passed and created the WTO? How could Democrats object to comparable free trade agreements after that without being the political party of Crazy, right? GWB saw how that turned out, and even Obama had trouble in his own party getting his USTR confirmed. It turns out that political parties represent shifting interests and diverse demographic and geographic coalitions, and what a GOP governor of Massachusetts thinks is the best political deal he can get for his (deep blue) state may not be reflective of what the party would like as a national policy, especially when that party is skeptical of all one-size-fits-all solutions, and generally prefers state-by-state experimentation.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/10/15/ex-acorn-operativ...
There are contracts with traditional marketing agencies to market through traditional channels (presumably TV and print), although they're waiting until the site is fixed to actually turn the machine to full throttle.
But I don't give a darn how many signed up on the first day.
I care how many sign up by December 31st.
Then we can discuss enrollment problems.