I couldn't imagine any big company in China will officially accept Bitcoin in the future at all.
What do you base this belief on?
Why do you believe this? There's a very long chinese tradition of vesting control in the social hierarchy. "Authoritarian control-monger" may be dirty language in the US, but not everywhere.
The Internet is an example. The GFW (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Shield_Project) surveillance all connections in China like NSA but since 10 years ago and people are used to it.
Even large payment companies in China (like Alipay) could do litter about economic innovation, they have to obey the rules set by the government and bank.
Any big company in China could challenge these rules by using a method which independent of any central authority in the future? I don't think so.
Strange, I always hear quite the opposite. That everything is simply too big at this point and although there is the appearance of a big controlling force, there really isn't one anymore.
* traditional Chinese culture would have the children care for their parents and grandparents in their old age
* one-child policy means that each child has two parents and four grandparents to care for exclusively, so that's not going to work out so well, therefore:
* everyone saves like crazy
* the state-run banks pay negative real interest rates (less than inflation)
* the state-run banks loan to big state-owned firms at negative real interest rates (and you can do amazing things when paying for capital at negative interest rates)
* the people in charge of the state-owned firms live lavish lifestyles off the profits and provide political support for the regime
* from time to time the government has to work to suppress riots over high food prices and other consequences of inflation
This breaks down if the ordinary people can get hold of a currency that isn't full of inflation. So, capital controls limit how many dollars people can get a hold of.
Of course, Bitcoin in the mix could be interesting. Or rendered illegal. Or both.
Some on-the-ground experience with China would indicate that the one-child policy has basically no effect on the number of children per couple. As would the international fertility stats.
Most recently, I asked a group of chinese software developers about the policy. They went around the table admitting they weren't only children.
I wonder what the explanation could be for our radically different experiences. Mine is all around Beijing, is yours perhaps out somewhere less urbanized?
Potentially it's an SES thing, but note that the fertility statistics show very low fertility for China, so a lot of only children isn't unusual overall. The conclusion that the one-child policy isn't having any effect comes from the fact that Japan and Korea have the same ultra-low fertility rate, but no one-child policy.
Perhaps the best comparison would be India, and the disparity in birth rates there is stark, but there are massive other differences as well.
Also, there is no practical limit to how much dollar you can get with yuan, it's called the grey market.
It's pretty astounding to me how Americans can still have such simplistic and misplaced views of how things works in other countries.
http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-ideas/inside-china8217s...
They're more into passive spying and subtle manipulation/influencing, instead of active restriction and arresting of dissidents.
You can see Chinese bitcoin trade volumes at this site: http://btckan.com/price (Google translate, also don't forget the 0-fee promotions). I hear that a one or two of them have shady reputations, but the majority don't. Volume has been increasing, and is rivaling dollar trade volumes. So the government isn't too overbearing in this regard, it seems. The state media also ran a detailed bitcoin TV special several months back.