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Comment by Wookai | Hacker News Reader

I'm the main author of the paper, and creator of http://sidekick.epfl.ch/. If you have any question, please ask, I'll be happy to answer!

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I didn't see any classification measures besides accuracy... Could You provide the confusion matrix? It's easy to derive all the important values (FPR, TPR, precision so on) and get a lot better idea of quality.

Since the outcome is either success or not, the coin flip classifier yields an accuracy of 50%. It would be worth noting that in the paper.

It's true that that should have mentionned it in the paper. The basline here is always telling it fails, which gives you about 52% accuracy. I should definitely provide the confusion matrix, it's on my TODO list. I will add a performance section to the website where I show this kind of information.

Yes, thank you.

I didn't mean to put down the article. Quite the opposite. It's truly an amazing application and a well thought through execution of the machine learning methods.

I have been wondering for some time, what the supervised learning could be useful for, which could benefit the broader audience (beyond computer vision, gaming, medicine and all the much popular and repeated applications). That You nailed perfectly.

No problem, I'm glad to get feedback, I didn't take it negatively ;).

Thanks a lot for your kind comments!

Vincetn, What's the best way to contact you about the paper. I sent you an email today to your EPFL email. Thanks, Robson.

Robson, I got your email, thanks. I just answered. Cheers!

Do you have plans to add indiegogo and other crowdufning sites?

Yes, I just have to see whether I could gather the same kind of information on these other websites. But I definitely want to compare the results I have with other crowdfunding websites.

so are the first 4 hours the most important? or very important?

Let's say that the way the project starts is important. How long really depends on the campaign duration. After 4 hours on average, the accuracy is 76%, meaning that you can tell quite accurately pretty early. We focus on early predictions because this is when they are helpful, i.e. the creator has time to react. We have very high accuracy near the end, but this does not help so much...

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