Is 'Web 2.0' Another Bubble? 2006

In Web 2.0 the turnover rate wasn't too high and most "services" were toys made in the spare time as a mashup of other services. To think it was a bubble, even at the time, is nonsense.

Today I see a different case: shady accounting practices, lots of companies going from zero to public with little market validation, high customer acquisition costs, and high employee turnover rates (at some companies).

Today I think we're in a bubble, but nobody can say for sure until we see it pop. But if you're smart, it doesn't really matter whether we're in a bubble or not.

Just don't be an idiot and get solid funding now so you have money to float above the failures.

In fact, I also think that Web 2.0 is a bubble in that time and I still think it was. But luckily, iPhone launched and changed the world.

A lot of startup will fail. Some bigger startups will fail at some point too. Corporate giants will fail and have to dissolve into smaller parts.

Do I think a new bubble is about to pop? Half and half, depending on how you think about it.

First, web 2.0 probably will continue to do well just because most people consider the Internet is a necessity. With government, business and education now moving to cloud-based operation, Internet will continue to be popular.

On the other hands, I got a lot of thoughts about buble popping.

Take Apple for example. Its market price can continue to last for several years as long as Apple continue to offer durable products as it has always been. Its market branch is now etched into everyone's head. It's like seeing MS Word - you just can't live without one (or a MS Word clone).

But competitors like Samsung is competing with Apple. The wheel is turning because Samsung offers more phone choices and in a way offers more features - well bigger screen, upgrade hardware spec, etc. So the Apple's dominant is being challenged. A company can't live on old reputation forever. It has to continue to surprise consumers. If Apple can't do that within, say, 5 years, and if its competitor offers more attractive products, I am sure the price will fall.

Blackberry is doom to dissolve anyway. It's just a matter of time. MS will have to give up some of its flesh to save its ass in the next 5-10 years. It just can't stay like this forever. People lose interest. Spending tens of billions on R&D produces little market attraction is a thing you don't want to end up with.

Google is boring too. So much criticism. Mozilla is facing challenge too: DRM or not? Mozilla has a long way to go. If has several years to observe the impact of DRM. Will FFOS take off in North America a few years from now? Will the market shrink more? How long more can Opera survive. Will Apple finally give up safari and say fuck that?

In the startup world, let's look at education. So many startups are building around education, offering either Coursea-like service or BlackBoard/Moodle like learning manamgnet service (I think Khan academy is in that direction, primarily for k-12, and I think Kewton too). But you got edx, coursera, udacity and a few other ones competing. Open learning seems hot but we start seeing some fragmentation. Who will win?

Twitter made some good money but also had some bad loss this year. Can it continue to do well next couple years? Are companies growing too fast?

So bubble will pop. Some will shut down, some get acquired, and some will win.