When one considers that Al Queda cut it's teeth, learning the effectiveness of political violence, by participating in resistance to Russia's Afghan invasion of the 1980's (with the eager assistance of the CIA), the nonsense purported in those 7 puzzles goes right out the window.
Second, what the predecessors to AQ did in Afghanistan is irrelevant. They were fighting a conventional/guerrilla war against a government run by a foreign superpower, and were heavily funded by the rival foreign superpower and its regional nation-state allies like Saudi Arabia who viewed it as a matter of geopolitical survival w/r/t subversion to neighboring countries & global energy supplies. This looks nothing like their later terrorist campaigns and the lessons or success of one do not generalize to the global summaries of terrorist groups - not that you bothered to explain how the 7 puzzles 'go right out the window' in the first place.
So, here comes this analysis that attempts to state facts as:
1. Terrorists only target civilians
2. Guerrillas only target uniforms holding weapons
These kinds of generalizations in social science are flawed from the outset, but now we try to plot the numbers anyway?
I don't buy into the idea that a heterogeneous mixture of non-state, civilian-killing groups can be boiled down to bald numbers. I think it's a mistake to even try.
I don't think targeting civilians is a rational goal, so how are you going to apply ratios to it?
I don't think it is. While there are differences about edge cases, you'll find an awful lot of agreement among people about 9/11 or a random suicide bomber blowing himself up in a cafe. Terrorism can be reasonably defined, classified, and statistically treated.
> I don't buy into the idea that a heterogeneous mixture of non-state, civilian-killing groups can be boiled down to bald numbers. I think it's a mistake to even try.
If they really are heterogenous then they can be analyzed in more meaningful subgroups!
EDIT: Spelling fix.
Al Qaeda's activities in Afgahanistan dont tell us a lot about the motivations of the various incarnations of the IRA, or ETA, or FARC, or the RAF, or November 17, or the Red Brigades, or the Tamil Tigers etc etc etc. Unless your suggesting that Al Qaeda s the only terrorist group ever, in which case your just wrong.
And even if we limit ourselves to talking about one terrorist group, Al Qaeda have not been successful in achieving their stated political goals beyond the Russian retreat from Afghanistan, so the 7 puzzles about why they actually bother are still legitimate questions.