This is all so foreign to me. I moved to SV 2 years ago, and I am 47. Y'all are in such a bubble. Every day the recruitment ads state 'change the world - join our social dog teeth brushing cloud service'. I'm only very slightly joking, merely to avoid calling out the actual companies and services. You know what changes the world? Dialysis machines. Microprocessors. Crash avoidance systems. Artificial hearts. More efficient aircraft. Factory automation.
My point is that it takes experience and time to build something important and large. You can't 'move fast and break things' if you are writing an accounting package or code for a chemical reaction chamber. You don't 'pivot' into a new $1B investment in new microprocessor.
Sure, if you are starting up the social dog teeth cleaning service you probably don't need much more than a few 20 somethings willing to kludge together 10 different half baked components (full stack developers!), and there is no point to knocking that kind of environment - I'm sure it is very cost effective. But I see this kind of thinking and lack of planning leaking into other businesses and ideas. I look at job ads for very difficult undertakings using the SV buzzwords of the day - pivot, agile, and so on, and my neuron starts throbbing.
Moreover, I rather worry about all the people coming up in the bubble, thinking it is bedrock reality. I may be wrong, but I suspect the world's appetite for social X services is small. No, I don't suspect it, I know it. Things like microprocessors, thermostats, smart Tvs, graphics cards, dialysis machines, car entertainment systems, accounting packages, factory floor software, and so much more are the engines of our economy. And I see so many posters on HN that I would never hire for a job that required engineering and planning. They don't have the skills, they aren't learning the skills, and when they are 30-35 all they will know how to do is 'program by magic' - change things until it works. Ya, no, you can't work on my flight computer.
This is probably just personal, but there is a very sour taste in my mouth whenever I hear about 'pivots' and 'exits'. I get why they are important in some HN type companies. But our world is truly built on products that require forethought ('move fast, break things' - new motto of Boeing? Not so much), planning, solid engineering, and great technical skill. I wonder why so many 20 somethings pour their talents in lives in something that will be discarded in a month when their myopic 'leader' goes chasing after the latest shiny thing to catch his eye (which is, IMO, the usual reason for a 'pivot'). I guess it pays well. I wish they were working on a better JIT, a lower wattage cpu, or what have you. I wonder at their job prospects when they are 35, have a family, don't have time to go back to school to learn calculus or what have you, and didn't 'hit' and make fuck you money. And I wish founders would actually do a market survey before launching the 5th dog teeth cleaning service in the same tiny geographic area. So many postmortems on here are truly head scratching. You didn't realize that this tiny pocket of under-served market, which is of keen and relevant interest to dozens of companies all around you, maybe, just maybe, has huge barriers to entry or scaling, and that every other company already explored it and wrote it off as unprofitable? Everyone but you is leaving money on the table? Hmmm.
Sorry, I am just having a 'wow, the silicon valley bubble sure is weird' moment. And I'm old, and cranky. Get off my lawn. But seriously, be very, very careful about taking the ideas and lessons from some tiny start up and trying to apply it to anything outside of that very odd, self-referential world.