Well IBM did end up divesting itself of the businesses people expected them to. They just did so in an orderly manner while simultaneously executing a new and very successful strategy.

As for Tomi Ahonen, by the time of that 2011 statement, Nokia's smartphone sales were visibly in precipitous decline. Not their share, but their sales. So Ahonen's statement can only be seen as a statement of faith rather than of confidence.

In these two cases, there were facts to support the predictions, where as in Apple's case all we have are just so stories.