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Funny you mention this because we use Nagios to monitor the availability of Google apps (Drive & Gmail mostly) and I get a false positive about once a fortnight. It's proven much more helpful to just monitor HN/Reddit or Twitter to figure out when there's an outage.

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Do you make API calls, or just grab web pages? I've noticed the Google APIs seem to occasionally return errors for no apparent reason. You could try double-trying in your Nagios check.

It's also complicated by Google's infrastructure — services are scattered across many, many servers, and Google's outages tend to be on some subset of services and/or servers. Your Nagios checks are probably not always checking the same endpoint as users connecting.

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