Carter Catastrophe : Calculating the Probability of Doomsday

Peter Coles has been applying Bayesian statistics to cosmology for at least fifteen years. In the following blog note he explains how Bayesian probability really is only a tradeoff by using Doomsday Argument as a pedagogical exapmle.

http://telescoper.wordpress.com/category/bad-statistics/

This is actually used as a plot device in Stephen Baxter's science fiction novel: Manifold Time

http://www.amazon.com/Manifold-Time-Stephen-Baxter /dp/034543076X