On the Symmetry between Microsoft and Apple

Stopped reading at: "[Apple is] selling products that are little if any better than competitors, at premium prices. How can it do that?"

This is such a ridiculous statement. Apple's notebook line is dominating, not because it's "little if any better" than the competitors, but because it's head and shoulders above the competition. They've systematically and iteratively refined, both in software and hardware, all the most important bits of portable computing. Battery life. Display quality. Weight. Size. Noise. Keyboard. Trackpad. Durability.

"By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's." - Paul Krugman, 1998

http://web.archive.org/web/19980610100009/www.redherring.com...

He's a little out of his element in this space, and a lot of his article feels like off-the-cuff ramble without much support.

But he does raise one really strong point: namely, that Microsoft's lead was largely secured on the back of enterprise sales -- a tougher moat to build, but a very protective and lucrative one once built. Apple's lead was secured on the consumer side, and consumers tend to be two things in the long run: price-conscious and fickle. Consumers picked cheaper and more ubiquitous Wintel machines over the more beautiful and expensive Apple machines in the 90s. Now they're picking cheaper and more ubiquitous Android devices in sufficient numbers to threaten Apple pretty seriously.

It's way too early to write Apple's epitaph in the mobile war, but things aren't as rosy as they once were.

This is ludicrously, hilariously, almost unbelievably ironic, coming from Krugman:

>>"In general, the thing about Apple is that it reflects the spirit of Steve Jobs, who knew what was good for you — and left you no way to do things differently. And if you are an atypical user, you end up putting a lot of effort into fighting iOS in order to do simple things."<<

It should baffle me that this problem is so obvious to Krugman and others in the field of electronics, but simply beyond mention when it comes to governance. It doesn't baffle me because it's clear that Krugman and others stopped being scholarly thinkers as soon as they gained a national audience to preach to.

The headline here is, well, bizarre. The headline on Krugman's article is "On The Symmetry Between Microsoft And Apple", and the conclusion is that Apple's dominance now on mobile is less secure than Microsoft's on the desktop at the peak of Microsoft's desktop dominance.

Which is, for one thing, quite a bit different than the characterization in the current HN headline (he doesn't say anything like "Apple Is Doomed") and, for another, quite obvious (I mean, just compare Apple's current marketshare in any relevant market to Microsoft's at the peak of its desktop dominance, or compare the trends.) Apple is well past its peak dominance in, say, mobile -- and at its peak it was less dominant there than Microsoft was on the desktop at its (much longer) peak. Heck, less so than Microsoft is on the desktop now.

In fact, Apple's trajectory in mobile is a lot like Apple's trajectory in the "personal computing" space in the 1980s -- lead initially, establish a firm loyal base willing to pay premium prices, and then starting losing the rest of the market (which has lower margins) to other players. Really, except to exploit attention directed at Microsoft because of the current CEO drama, there's not a lot of reason to look to Microsoft's history for a comparison, when Apple provides a better one in its own history.

Krugman says so many wrong things - about bitcoin for example, but not just about that.

So, who cares ?

Also, he seems to miss how many people complained about Microsoft in the 90s while most people seem very happy with their Apple products.

> the wonderful people in the Wilson School IT department, who have saved my life multiple times, aren’t set up to deal with Apple products.

I would argue that not only do you have full access to the Apple Store geniuses but if you happen to not have a Apple Store near you there will be Apple certified repair people you can use. Also I would guess that you would not have to get your mac repaired anywhere near as often as you do your windows machine.

"I’ve had an iPhone — which, sad to say, did not survive dunking in water — and now have a Samsung, and the differences don’t seem huge"

everyone new to contemplating the mobile scene always seems to miss out on the longer term advantage of apple phones due to upgradability. it's an absolute hell with andriod. im not saying this will create a swing back in apples direction for marketshare, not at all. I'm just saying that difference is indeed huge to anyone that looks at it.

(disclaimer, I've had iphones and andriod phones and i think they all suck equally. i role on motorola c155 with 3 text line display)

This article is pathetic on so many levels. He starts off saying he basically has no clue about technology or the industry, and then concludes with Apple is doomed because it's hard to organize his youtube downloads in iTunes. Really?

There is no reason this should be on the front page, and the only reason it is there is because the headline has been editorialized.

Edit: also, this from the guy who said the internet's impact on the economy would be no bigger than the fax machine - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6342272

Apple may or may not be doomed, but one thing I've learned over time is not to trust economists straying too far from their turf. Krugman blaming a dead CEO on his inability to use an iPhone does not equate to calling up the corporate coffin maker.

When I saw the title, I was hoping for a more economic reason about trade, network effects or competitive advantage.

I have to back him up on iTunes. I hate it. I've always hated it. I'm not sure it dooms Apple, but I've seen lots of products die as a result of infuriating design choices. It takes a while, but it does happen.

This article, along with most of the stuff Krugman wrote about bitcoin, is utter bs. Apple is doomed cause iOS doesn't let Krugman organize his Youtube downloads.

Weird post - he's definitely a smart guy, but clearly not an expert in this area. In fact, he sounds a lot like my dad.

Why do we care what he thinks here?

I am a big android fan, but I definitely see differences in quality between Apple products and others. I don't care as much about the polish, though - I like the freedom that android can afford.

But comparing Apple now to Microsoft in their hay day is not original, compelling or even that accurate. I mean, they're still selling computers, true, but the whole space seems pretty different than how it was when Microsoft was dominating... isn't that why Microsoft's in trouble in the first place?

I guess his point is more general - that Microsoft gained market dominance not through making a superior product, but simply by gaining traction and having the largest consumer base - that may be true, but Microsoft allowed a lot of freedom and control over your devices while Apple does not. Furthermore, Android has dominated the market in terms of numbers for a while now and yet Apple is still in the game - presumably due to the quality of their products, not the fact that lots of people use them.

Anyways, I'm probably rambling. My point is simply that Krugman should probably sick to his area of expertise.

Eh. He is right about Apple forcing you to work their way, and only their way. Try to select all on iPhone email, or try to access the file system. For the computer literate, the lack of these options on a stock iPhone is beyond annoying. they are just a sample of frustration encountered when using Apple products, no mater how good their quality is.

Krugman orders a pizza. Guy asks if he wants it cut into 6 or 8 slices. Krugman says, '8 please. I'm very hungry today.

-GSelevator

> "My casual impression is that Apple’s lock isn’t nearly as secure, in part because it’s relying on the loyalty of individual customers — in contrast to Microsoft, which was largely relying on the loyalty of corporate IT managers, who are inherently more conservative."

The important thing is right in this quote. Apple cares about making product we want to buy, not product we are forced to use.

To stay relevant, Apple needs to keep going. And because they rose so high, they pushed other players to offer amazing product to compete. That's almost like capitalism at its best.

Of course they could fail, and they will not be saved by IT Managers inertia. Well too bad, I will have fond memories like I have fond memories of my C64 and Amiga500.

I certainly prefer that to the bland pc market.

Krugman's a smart guy about a lot of things, but he didn't get computers and the internet, didn't believe that measured productivity gains from using them were real (to his credit, he did publish a mea culpa or two years later) and I think he's just as ignorant about what differentiates Apple's products from Microsoft's. It's interesting that he doesn't understand the difference between their value propositions (Microsoft is competing, in a sense, with Google -- which sucks because Google gives away its products -- while Apple is competing with Amazon and Samsung).

He doesn't get that iTunes is not a media player, but a music and video shop sneakily embedded in your computer. Media player functionality is only added there to lure you in so you would buy content from Apple.

Obviously, Apple doesn't care for your youtube videos. But I wouldn't expect a Keynesist to understand the nuances of how modern products are structured and real product often concealed behind a freebie.

If you want a media player, just download one. My favourite is AVPlayer for iPhone (and AVPlayer HD for iPad). Plays all formats I tried.

Huh.. if he says that then it isn't in this article. The word "doomed" does not appear anywhere in the article... not even the title.

Not sure if I agree. Apple consistently provides better experience because they control both hardware and software. Google is now realizing that or else they wouldn't have built nexus.

I feel like its just one of those days where you have to turn something in but procrastinated and said "Fuck it, I'll just compare Apple and Microsoft". Slow day...

Just hit a paywall, so it would be nice to read at least a summary of the article.

The Mantle of John C. Dvorak has been passed to Paul Krugman.

it's an important lesson: someone i respected wrote something he has little knowledge about destroyed the respect.

Isn't he the same Economist who went bankrupt himself ?