> I'm not sure why so many are predicting WPs death - it's actually doing pretty well outside the US. Here in the UK it's now just under 10%. Pundits are far too US orientated.

Trouble is, the US is a large and profitable smartphone market. And it's locked up by the on-contract subsidy model.

There is a strong relationship between iPhone market share and subsidy amount. Countries with no subsidies have very few iPhones. Countries with some subsidies have some iPhones. The United States has high subsidies and thus a lot of iPhones.

http://www.tech-thoughts.net/2012/05/proof-of-iphones-depend...

To some extent, Apple has a protected home market. Regardless of how its market share declines overseas, Apple will still rake in enormous profits through the cellphone subsidy in the US.

This is something that Nokia/Windows Phone doesn't have, with its puny 3.5% US market share. They're doing OK in the markets where people look at the price of the phone, and not doing well in the one market where people are happy to have their pockets picked.

That's not a recipe for making large profits in the phone business. And that's why the US market matters. Profits are disproportionately large compared to revenues.