Giant Robotic Mining Trucks in the Australian Desert
medium.com
medium.com
Even the manned trucks have their routes all planned by computer. Some algorithm decides the most efficient way to move trucks around. Sometimes a driver will get a seemingly nonsensical instruction to deposit his load in a location other than the one closest to him, but when you query the computer about it, it's got a valid reason why that's a better idea for efficiency and it's always right.
The precision in the GPS trackers in phenomenal. Short range scanners pick up GPS tags on all corners of a bin, a robotic delivery system can place a gigantic item with mere centimetres of accuracy.
The human really is the weakest link in the entire system.
It's unsurprising the military want this. I remember being an outside contractor for PermoDrive in the early 2000s. They were just a small company from a small rural Australian town who developed a system which enabled trucks to store braking energy and later use it as forward momentum, reducing fuel costs by some large amount. Once they had a working prototype, the US military swooped in and bought the company.
Differential GPS works by having a local GPS receiver station which location is well known. This station is comparing the location determined from the GPS signal to its known location, calculates necessary corrections and sends the information to other GPS receivers.
Rio is also automating their trains, and minesite operations (a kind of "flight tower" for a minesite) have all been done remote for years. It looks a lot like an NOC, actually.
Finding people to drive trucks for 100k+ is actually not that hard. You basically advertise a job: "drive trucks. Make big bucks" and people flock to it.
But getting 2 or 3 different people to drive the same truck in shifts, and accommodating them, and flying them in and out, and feeding them ... it adds up. To an overhead that could run past a million dollars per year, per truck. And if you have an idle truck, that's lost money.
But it's not even the money. Rio, like BHP Billiton, enjoys insane free cashflow right now.
It's about protecting production from union activity.
In the 80s the Western Australian mining industry was repeatedly crippled by huge fights between the mining giants and the unions, particularly the quite-militant CFMEU. A mix of legislative changes by a long-serving conservative government beginning in the mid 90s, plus generous individual contracts, broke the unions' grip on mining. And just in time for the mining boom.
In 2007 a Labor government was elected and dramatically tilted the legislative tables back in favour of the unions. Then the GFC struck with full force and it so happened that Rio had just prior to it borrowed heavily to buy assets at the top of the market. So any prolonged interruption to production would be death.
And so Rio have moved to make their mining operations as union-proof as possible. Automatic trucks is part of it. The ore trains too, parts of their port systems ... everything that can be made autonomous and/or remote is being made autonomous and remote.
Source: Brother in law was a foreman at a strip mine.
The OH&S benefits alone would have justified the project in the long term, and not parking the truck up justifies it in the short term - even without any existential threat from the unions.
As an aside, was there any threat of union activity? I haven't followed WA industrial relations in the last 5 years, but I though the operators have been too busy wallowing in cash to worry about pay.
I agree that there is more than one reason why Rio is doing this. But from a business perspective they are more vulnerable to production interruptions than BHP -- who aren't carrying such a heavy debt burden.
I am currently reading about the history of the North Sea subsea workers during the great petroleum expansion from 1960-2000, and the safety culture which followed from American drilling companies was just atrocious. Divers would be forced into lethal working conditions in situations where it was completely out of proportion to the importance of the work. 16-hour shifts under water, aggressive decompression tables which frequently led to both acute diving sickness and long-term delibitating injury, in addition to frequent accidents. (An "accident" under water usually means death). One time they sent down a guy who had been picked up from a pub three hours prior, who started the dive by puking in front of the whole crew. He died.
So tl;dr, giving unions the power to temporarily stop the work for safety concerns is vital if you want to make sure that the workers mostly get home safely.
http://www.amazon.com/Gangster-Capitalism-United-Globalizati...
If you improve safety by removing humans from dangerous situations, you reduce interruptions to operations. For a company at the scale of Rio, that's millions of dollars per day.
If Norway can do it why can't Australia?
The second difference is that Hawke and Keating didn't just drop it like a bombshell. They took their time to talk it through with the industry, over I think it was about 18 months of consultation and negotiation.
In fact, extremely heavy taxation will help with the "problem" of unions because with heavy taxation, the mining companies wouldn't have an incentive to penny-pinch on salaries. And with higher salaries, a greater amount of the mining wealth would be evenly distributed and enter the economy where a larger number of people can spend it. This is what happens in the North Sea. As a bonus, the unions will to a greater degree spend their efforts of safety measures instead of a game of tug-rope when it comes to salaries. The Norwegian model works.
Of course, you can't just tack on a 70+% tax regimen in retrospect without confiscating enormous shareholder value. So I think Australia is more or less screwed on this front. The best you could do would be to progressively tax new minesites. But of course this screws up the incentives unless it was done from the start.
Disclaimer: I work at Rio Tinto.
There are controls put in to ensure safety (e.g. cabin sensors to detect signs of driver fatigue, in-vehicle monitoring, vehicle blackbox, etc.), but at the end of the day, it can only help so much.
One of our projects this last year was with a mining company in Russia (http://www.belaz-mining.com/eng/belaz/30t.html / Russian video of our trucks http://auto.tut.by/news/autobusiness/346004.html). At least one of their mining areas is highly irradiated. The radiation is so high that drivers reach their life-time radiation limit in about 6 months of driving. So they're automating their fleet of trucks to avoid the need to constantly replace drivers.
Followed by:
>But the reason why the technology is picking up in the mines is partly out of necessity. Partly because Rio Tinto can afford it.
Let's face it. Anything to not pay pensions and workman's comp.
Eliminating workman's comp suggests that the robotic vehicles are substantially safer compared to putting human lives at risk.
(As a roboticist, I reject the notion that "all automation is bad", but that's a separate discussion.)
The mining industry in Australia is on the tail end of the biggest expansion in living memory, and it turns out it is near-impossible for love or money to move Australians out into the desert to work in mines.
It was not unreasonable to have trucks parked up because there simply was no human to drive them, and the salaries for a truck driver were in the $150,000+ Australian dollars, plus food, lodging and plane flights. This doesn't represent a scary cost for a mining company - it represents a scary lack of worker supply. A parked truck is an unhappy truck.
In addition, we have very strict OH&S laws and the site mangers can be raked over the coals for the wierdest things. Eg, if I saw a light vehicle parked on non-level ground without wheel chocks, it would probably be escalated to the site Manager (not a pit supevisor, not the Manager of Mining, but the person responsible for the entire site) and someone being sacked would be an option on the table. Getting rid of the humans is a huge benefit from a safety perspective, which we take very, very seriously.
Finally, automated trucks will provably do the right thing, all the time, without getting fatigued or taking breaks. Humans just cannot compete from a utilising-the-very-expensive-asset-properly point of view.
[[Citation Needed]]
Contrast this with a human operator, who are instructed to drive at specific speeds at each road section. Perhaps due to fatigue , overconfidence (e.g. I drove on this road 1000's times before, I know what I am doing), or other factors, the driver did not slow down enough and subsequently accidents occur.
Yup. All innovation is really just a way to screw over the honest, hard working individual. From the mechanical loom to the automobile to electronically switched telephone networks, all innovation in the modern era has been to screw over the worker.
You and me, let's start a society that gets rid of all those horrible, unemployment-inducing contraptions. Imagine - we will have 0% unemployment because all of the machines will be humans!
Eventually you get two groups -
A few highly skilled and specialized people that design, maintain, and improve the automated systems.
A large amount of unskilled workers, who are nothing more than "replaceable units", that get told what to do by those systems.
And that does not even attempt to even show the amount of unemployable people that would be around from all the human jobs lost in the first place after the hump. Just think of the fast food industry, and how technologic improvements would "disrupt" it (by removing the work force). And then who do you sell the product to? The person who does not have a paycheck?
It is absolutely true that not needing to pay pensions or workman's comp is a part of the move to technology. But total jobs available goes up with increasing technological use while creating localized labor displacements.
as far as i know, unemployment has been fairly steady since the beginning of time. as new technologies come about, new jobs are created to replace the ones taken by machines. we're losing truck drivers at an alarming rate, but never before has there been so many designers and environmental consultants and political analyst jobs. it sucks if you're a truck driver, but doesn't really change much for global economics.
"A large amount of unskilled workers, who are nothing more than 'replaceable units', that get told what to do by those systems."
That is a pretty effective description of any post-industrial-revolution economy.
These are very hazardous work sites and these vehicles are bit unforgiving. The day we don't send people down in mines will be a good one, if it starts with the trucks up top then so be it.
Companies do not pay pensions. That is left to a mix of a government-paid pension and individual retirement savings accounts (superannuation). Saving for retirement in Australia is compulsory.
As for workman's compensation, Rio have the best safety record of the majors. They have a fairly unyielding OH&S culture. My old man needed dozens of tickets to do his work. He'd need to justify climbing a ladder and log it.
Meanwhile, over in BHP, somebody seems to die every few months.
And climbing a ladder can be more dangerous than you'd think. Imagine it's a 10-meter ladder on top of some tall-ish structure. Falling down could easily cripple or kill you. The only reason this seems like a stupid safety measure is because people do it in civilian life all the time, without thinking about the (small but serious) risk. Such risks are things you see all the time when operating at scale.
The problem is what to do with the displaced labor.
"A large (often 120 meters by 40 meters) spice mining machine commonly employed on rich, uncontaminated melange blows (often called a "Crawler" because of a bug-like body on independent tracks)." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Dune_ships
Harvester paper model (by 'The 4ce') http://papermau.blogspot.nl/2011/11/dunes-spice-harvester-pa...
"Spice harvesters are large vehicles specialy designed to harvest the Spice Melange. Because of the rythmic sound they make, they are regularly eaten by Sandworms. When Muad' Dib asked Liet Kynes if they would see a sandworm while veiwing the spice harvesting, Kynes replied that they always come when they hear a spice harvester." http://dune.wikia.com/wiki/Spice_harvesters
Dune2 images: https://www.google.com/search?q=spice+harvester+dune2&num=10...
Can you imagine the warmongers when there is little human cost and all you have to do is cut funding education or assistance to the poor to attack another nation?
I really hope we get mandatory draft in the USA before this decade is out, it's the only way to stop the madness. If it becomes delegated to people sitting in trailers flying armed drones being yelled at to fire upon possibly innocent civilians, we are doomed.
Was going to ask for a source - found several... back in 2009!
Underground navigation technology comes from Navitec Systems [2]. I think they are using laser scanning to provide accurate positioning underground without requiring installation of beacons or cables.
Accurate positioning is obviously important since it affects how fast the underground trucks can drive.
[1] http://bit.ly/17dDq99 [2] http://www.navitecsystems.com/wordpress/en/referenssit/sandv...
A project that big would go through quite some effort to appease the locals - otherwise the mine (basically inevitably) gets written off.
Autonomous trucks will get to the stage where they simply don't stop. Human operated trucks need breaks, and make mistakes. So it doesn't matter if they cost more - they also produce more.
Finally, autonomous trucks don't cause OH&S incidents nearly as easily. This is a huge issue, especially for a company like Rio Tinto. In Australia at least, OH&S issues can shut mines down. This alone would probably be worth any price premium in the million dollar order of magnitude.
Something tells me from watching what is going on in places like greece, spain, and even stateside in places like detroit and camden, that the above is not going to happen. Or should people expect central banks to print more and allocate more debt to people?
It's going to take some time though as nowadays the middle class doesn't like the idea of more social welfare since there's currently a direct connection to heavier taxes.
We can all collectively live on a lot less than we currently do (stuff-wise, not necessarily money-wise).
I keep hoping that a positive side effect of this economic shift will the reduction of accumulation of unessential crap..
It's interesting to think about how that world would look like. Imagining a constant rate of production, this means that cheaper goods will be spread around fewer people. I imagine that this would drive a push away from mid-level jobs, probably into highly educated roles that innovate or maintain complex autonomous systems.
http://hateandanger.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/buckminster-...
If anything, supply/demand curve logic suggests there would be more trucks overall.
[1] disclaimer: i don't think robot trucks will have 100% utilization, and current utilization is probably higher than 1/3, i just guessed 8 hours of use a day. I think the point stands, more trucks on the road at the same time, but fewer trucks overall.
My day job has large elements of mining haul truck performance. Currently most mines would probably be in the 40-70% utilisation band (for practical purposes), automating the trucks would probably add ... 5% utilisation? Maybe 10%? Both guesses, but they aren't likely to break 75% (I doubt they would break 65%, but I'm wiling to be surprised by evidence).
Practically speaking, the trucks would be more reliable due to automating, and in economic terms, truck hours/dollar would increase (*edit, said drop initially). Supply/demand theory tells us that mining companies could reasonably respond by buying more trucks.
I am referring to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
My guess is that jobs lost to truck automation will be less than offset by increases in mechanics for those trucks. What do you think?