> How many false positives do you know of who didn't produce anything?
Well, none. We haven't had any false positives since I started (and this is my first full-time job).
Depending on how quickly you catch the mistake, I would stand by my statement or call it an exaggeration. If they're still in training when you catch it, they've probably produced nothing. If it takes longer than that, then they've probably produced something (although if they're contributing enough bugs, it is entirely possible for them to have negative net productivity). But even at best, they're producing less than their salary (why else are you firing them?), so you've lost something.
> This, I feel, is highly dependent on company and codebase.
No arguments here.
> I would like to know what the issues are for a smaller company
From a US perspective, most of the cost is lawyers. It is very easy to say something wrong and end up with a wrongful termination suit, so you end up being very careful, which is expensive in both money and time.
> It seems like the employers and managers here speak of the difficulty in actually getting rid of people, while most of the individual contributors I know are worried about losing their jobs at the drop of a hat.
My experience is that people are worried about being laid off, not fired. Maybe I'm out of the loop, in which case I don't really have an answer to this one.
> if your company is also one of those that complains about how hard it is to find "qualified" people
We're not. We're pretty happy with our current growth rate (recently it's a bit high, if anything).
Maybe this reverses if you're having trouble finding as many people as you want to hire. I would understand accepting more false positives if that's your situation.