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I'm imagining Canonical might chip in the remaining money at the last minute?

Mark Shuttleworth has specifically said that he will not do that. From the Reddit AMA:

http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1j166z/hi_im_mark_shut...

"Lots of folks have speculated I might close the gap if it's close. But I think that would not be in the spirit of the project; rather I would hope someone smarter than me will come up with a better concept that DOES get greenlighted, because I really believe in the idea of crowdsourcing the signal to innovation."

I understand that he said this, and I think that he is being honest, but just to point out: if he was secretly planning on bailing it out at the last minute, saying that you will pick up any slack is probably not a good way to run a crowd funding campaign.

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