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Comment by marvin | Hacker News Reader

So, does anyone want to give odds that Tesla will be a disruptive force in the automotive industry throughout the next decade?

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If they manage to remain at or near profitability through the continued scaling of Model S production and the introduction of the Model X next year, then things could get very interesting when they release their infamous 'third-generation', mass-market vehicle.

Yeah, I remember beign told at the end of the 90's that if you'd bought 100 shares (~$2000) of Microsoft stock at IPO and sold in '99, you'd have cashed in well over a million dollars.

Tesla gives me that kind of feeling at the moment.

It probably won't be to the same extent as Tesla's market cap is already quite high. So I can't see them splitting quite as much as MS. But on the other hand, I think they're definitely a stock to hold on to for quite a while and see what happens.

The problem with your thought process is that, unlike microsoft and google or apple, most traders and analysts already treat the company as if it can do no wrong. Analysts calling for price targets of 130 or 160 were predicting sales of 200K+ units per year 2-3 years out, which is a really aggressive target given the size of the addressable markets. On the other hand, it was only in 2011-2012 that wall street gave Apple its due credit.

Which is not to say that the stock couldn't jump further, but as of now it's already in the same ballpark as big auto in terms of market cap (as of close today, Tesla market cap is 17.6B while Ford's market cap is 65B and GM's market cap is 51B).

In short, a good buy requires two things:

1) Potential for growth

2) Potential for growth that everybody else hasn't already recognized

Tesla is dandy for #1, but isn't looking too hot on #2.

the market cap comparison is somewhat misleading because clearly there is substantial probability of Tesla selling many more cars, once they release mass market versions. They have created enormous brand value. if they successfully offer a mass market car, their market cap could easily be higher than Ford.

I bought several tens of thousands of TSLA shares at ~$17/share when they went IPO; my wife still chides me I didn't buy more.

Assuming at least 20k shares, you made >$2.5mm off that investment, using $340k of capital?

Not bad.

Haven't sold all of it, so its not fully realized. Sometimes it pays to go all in.

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