"We've been tracking you, you're a regular. Here's 5% off for spending ~13min per day on our website from IP 192.168.0.1"
It would give me the creeps.
I think the reason is that while I know somewhere in my mind that Amazon (using them as an example, since I order from them frequently) has a huge quantity of information about me, but it's not something I think about on a day to day basis.
However, the moment they do something to bring my attention to the fact that they have extensive information on me, such as a fictional "you usually buy a movie every Saturday Night, and it's Sunday and you haven't made a purchase, would you like to buy a movie now?" would immediately bring the awareness of their tracking to the front of my mind, and create the associated worry about "just how much do they know about me?"
I know that the answer to that question is "a lot," and enumerating exactly how much they might know about me is a very long process. It makes me question "can I trust Amazon to use this to my advantage, and not theirs?" Even if they never do use it in an "evil" way (which I believe will be the case), the capability is still unsettling to me.
I gave it the data, I know I voluntarily handed it over, and yet I still pause and think "holy crap" sometimes.
(It also means I bought too many shoes at some point in my life.)
Of course, you might want to let users know that you do this, and that means emailing them, and that makes this more of an emailed coupon offer, which is back to being more like a traditional coupon approach, but either way hopefully you can give your regulars some warm fuzzies.
Would be interested in seeing some stats/research on whether this is true and how much prices are affected by it.