RSA-128 is trivially breakable. Being able to break RSA-128 isn't a demonstration that P=NP, either.
Some of what people are writing seems to imply more than attacks against specific parameters but rather some theoretical breakthrough that would render the scheme completely unusable. (e.g. factoring in polynomial time to key length)
People have been moving to longer keys over time and thus simply being able to attack a given key length isn't the same as saying the entire scheme is broken. Today a 768 bit key is very difficult to attack. Is RSA with 64k-bit keys likely to be broken within 5 years?
I guess in one sense our ability to work with much larger RSA keys has progressed faster than the theoretical advances in factoring. Until the time someone has some practical and provably strong cryptosystem we're kind of always at risk. ECC could also be broken so why should I feel more comfortable using ECC over RSA with 64k bit keys?
At the 64kbit-level (again, BIG BIG difference from 16kbit), even the cost of encryption/decryption alone is easily going to cripple a high-traffic server.
Google does use ECC, on platforms that support it. See for example http://googleonlinesecurity.blogspot.com/2011/11/protecting-... which has a screenshot.
This article was based on a presentation I was marginally involved with, and I'm telling you that the assertions the talk was making were very much key length dependent. An event that forces a migration from 1024 bit RSA keys would be painful and dramatic.
I saw the slides and read various articles that followed and none of them seemed to be specifically concerned about 1024 bit RSA keys. Can you point me to where in the presentation slides that is emphasized as the main concern?
It's quite one thing to say we should be concerned that 1024 bit keys can be compromised and or to say DH/RSA is dead. I wasn't at the presentation so I don't know what was presented.
Not: "Math Advances Suggest 1024 bit RSA keys may be factorable within 5 years"
Looking at the slides again:
"There is a small but real chance that both RSA and non-ECC DH will soon become unusable"
"key sizes may have to up to 16kbit" - "wildly impractical" (WHY???)
L(1/4) isn't quite enough to make RSA unusable with large enough keys. I ran the numbers for 64k but you don't need to go as large.
It's not clear that this sort of linear progression presented is real. Some math problems don't see any progress in a long time and some see big progress rapidly. Seems to me like it's trying to find a pattern where there isn't one necessarily.
To conclude. RSA may fall tomorrow. ECC may fall tomorrow. AES may fall tomorrow. I agree with the principle we need to have some agility built in to cryptosystems (though if it falls we're kind of screwed). Maybe we need to combine cryptosystems such that one breaking won't take us down. Added complexity and changes create attack opportunities (at least current implementations are battle hardened).