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Doesn't that mean they'll actually make a significant loss due to Paypal fees?

PayPal refunds fees when you issue a refund, so you lose nothing.

They refund fees to the client, not to the vendor iirc.

This could cost indiegogo a lot.

Maybe this is all just a big ploy set up by Ubuntu and Paypal. Set up a $32M campaign, sure to fail, split the fees!