-> it'll probably be a decade before we reach pre-bust levels.
How do you know?
The same people who didn't see it coming are all of a sudden experts on when it's going to end.
How do you know?
The same people who didn't see it coming are all of a sudden experts on when it's going to end.
In other words I don't "know", I never claimed to "know" so you shouldn't accuse me of it.
If you're going to go so far as to quote the line at least read it first and try to look at what the author's actual meaning was.
For the record I based my opinion on the simple fact that things around me shouldn't cost as much as they do. The house two doors down from me is 2 bedroom, needs a new roof and was still valued at $750,000. In my opinion a two bedroom house simply isn't worth that so I don't expect it to bounce back to that value.
http://books.google.ca/books?id=F3WpzcinFc4C&dq=Didier+S...
Please go easier on the thumbs down stuff.
Here's why the long term outlook is bad: An aging population will necessarily convert assets of all classes into money in order to finance their retirement. Simple as that.
Short term, who the hell knows? Buy Citi on margin short term, if you feel like it.
I disagree with using the word "much," that money is going through the filter of consumables and living expenses. The parent poster's point is that retirement destroys wealth faster than it is created. (Which is why that wealth was saved in the first place. To believe otherwise is to subscribe to the Broken Window fallacy.)
You're exactl yright. Perhaps this is why people are almost asking to be creamed on their finances. The classic condition for stress is having to do sth and not being able to do it. People who have spent tens of years doing "economics" are none the wiser for it, their forecasts are about as correct as those of a bunch of taxidrivers: Zero, no statistical significance. And still everybody must do it or, even worse, judge the ability of others to do it. No wonder the snakes thrive. In my experience, people who are blunt and truthful to clients have a really hard time to get heard.