Creativity is often spurred by ignorance

This is so true. I've seen it with my own experience -- had I know what I know today about the industry I'm in, I probably wouldn't have started my business. But a decade ago, I knew nothing, and, well, ignorance was bliss (and worked!)

I think this is also, to some extent, why Silicon Valley seems to favor young entrepreneurs -- not because youth has some fundamental "betterness" to it, but because when a seasoned vet gives 100 ways an idea can fail (because he's seen them happen), an idealistic entrepreneur waves them away -- "bah - not an issue."

They're both right to some extent -- there are 100, 1000, 10000 ways an idea can fail, and the more you know, the more reasons you can come up with to avoid starting. But people still start crazy businesses, people still take risks, and entrepreneurs still do their thing with blissful reckless abandon (as they should!) :)

This is misleading. They were wrong in two cases.

1. They underestimated the difficulty and cost of the project.

2. They underestimated the profitability of the project.

Had their estimations been more accurate, they would have realized that it would have been profitable even at 10x the original estimate.

They got lucky. Someone with more accurate estimates would have gotten the funding and succeeded as well - but had the project been unprofitable, his more accurate estimates would have steered him away from it.

While ignorance may lead to more attempts on average, it will also create less value in the long term, as more of those attempts will fail. An entrepreneur with better knowledge is more likely to succeed.

I dunno, maybe the factories would have relocated had the route not been there. Minmax finds a way.

However, the general point about creativity remains, and I find myself relying every day on free software projects which would not have been engaged in by an economically rational individual.