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Once again I find myself deeply unimpressed with those who would seek to portray achievement of a >1% share of a multi-billion-user market as some sort of failure. We'll also leave aside the fact that those statistics you're citing are likely biased against Opera, given the markets it's most common in.

(And I don't even like Opera...)

I bet if Opera will be default browser in OS X it will be more popular than Safari.

This is a great point to bring up. Safari and IE get a sort of default market share given that they ship with a mainstream OS.

I think you choose your browser in Windows before you use it (at least in Europe). // I'm not sure I agree with this law, but it for sure affects browser share.

After 15 it's going to shrink a whole lot more.