Google TV Ads
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google.com
I'm a producer on a scrappy little TV show (local, trying to expand). This is startling, because I just finished work on a business plan today and our business model is produce show, sell ad spots direct to likely candidates, and buy airtime to increase reach.
I'm really not sure how I feel about this. I may be able to use it (particularly to use the pricing estimates to reverse-engineer the viewership revenue possibilities for TV show in the genre I'm producing, as well as to identify which slots are most effective - Nielsen already produces such data, but it costs a fortune), but it's also very tough on me as a producer because I don't have a network deal of any kind; furthermore it makes me much more dependent on a network owner while cutting me out of the loop completely as a content creator, strongly reinforcing the position of the distributor (not unlike how your iPhone app doesn't exist for commercial purposes if you're not in the app store). I applaud Google for automating the ad-buying process, and I presume that due to their sheer size they'll be able to secure very good terms and make profits on relatively small margins. But our existing plan of generating maybe $2m/yr in direct sponsorship sales 2 years from now is probably in the toilet, because if I were an advertiser it would probably be vastly simpler to just use this new tool and have a dashboard with analytics and so forth than to do special deals with niche content providers (like us).
It's not going to disrupt the TV/advertising business overnight, of course, but this is going to be the talk of the industry over the next 72 hours. I have to say I feel like I just got sucker-punched. It doesn't help that my boss is an old-school ad guy who finds Google docs mysterious.
(Strangely, the 'ad creation marketplace' (hook up with a producer/camera team) goes to a dead link. Mini-fail, there.)
Peoplemeter ranks are used pretty much for everything from thereon in TV business. Sales events that take place use it as a general method of taking a stand towards ad agencies and big clients directly, but only as a stand (for ad pricing). Sales in TV is based on personal relationships between sales people and buyers (mostly ad agencies specialized in media buying). It is not uncommon, in fact it is quite common to have only a handful of ad agencies buy up in front, in bulk, ad space directly from TV Network or station and regulate sales from thereon to other agencies which are further specialized in ad placement/media buying/plans. Biggest agencies buy ad space, sell it to smaller ones which sell it to clients. Clients, in general, buy commercial/s from creative agencies and media space from other agencies (only smaller clients/budgets buy from one agency - with a good reason).
So, we have TV networks/stations (I'm not talking about really smaller ones) that always sell their space to media buying agencies which funnel their capital to that space - they sell it further down the road to their buddies. it is really hard to get into that game no matter what. It is a closed loop. TV Networks often have special/premium content which they sell off directly - this delegates to live shows, specials and large projects (Reality stepped into this pretty much). However, this being a premium content at a premium price, it is always at a special events sale only for that purpose - mostly to primary sponsors of the show/special.
There are two side liners here, in this whole business. Small productions and small stations/networks. They get the scraps of the table, if at all. They are out of the loop. Small stations usually sell off their ad space to local businesses and stuff like that - they have their own marketing departments which sells off in a classic, direct marketing approach (cold calling, small events etc.). Then there are smaller productions which can't get enough money from small stations to budget their own productions.
What follows in this scenario is that usually small productions give their content to stations "for free" in compensation for some of the ad space within that content, and station itself ads on that ad space its own ad space. So you have a show for example, independently produced, aired on the station with embeded ads that production itself sold - and wrapped around that you have station sold ads. This tend to work pretty well IF production is capable of selling off ad space, which is rarely the case and usually ends up in one or several "sponsors" of the show which pay for the production and profit margin.
Google could step in that second market if they play it right.
What amuses me though is this quote "And to get started, we'll help you create your own TV commercial for free.". Well, I don't know what kind of commercials? Maybe motion graphics/stock video/stationary holds, which you can make on your own for dirt cheap or have it made for the same amount. I work on commercials pretty much all the time (it is the most readily available type of business for directors and video/graphics independents), and to make a technically good commercial it takes A LOT of money, not because we are being fancy and want a lot of it. It is because all of the industry is set up so that it takes a lot of money - starting from renting the equipment, to people to various layers of agencies etc.
I would love to be able to upload complete episodes to YT and sell ads against that - our show is local but of general interest (cooking, basically). I'm looking at just breaking it into chunks and creating our own YT channel but the exec isn't terribly web-savvy so I'm probably going to do it on my own time and keep my mouth shut until we have >10k views.
From a brief look, it does seem to be a lot more convenient for advertisers. I bet many small and medium-sized businesses would start advertising on TV more because of this service.
Does this spell doom for ad agencies? I'd love to hear informed opinion on this. Is there a different implication between ad agencies that target small- and medium-sized business and Fortune 100 corporations?
What Google will do is just the third part. We'll probably see Google TV Ads being used by ad agencies to manage their clients TV schedules.
Large companies advertising on the internet already hire an ad agency to deal with their AdWords campaigns, because they'll write the ad text/create the image/flash, and they have the market research, and they probably designed the landing page anyway.
Ad agencies love Google AdWords, they'll probably love TV Ads too. It's a tool to better manage TV ads scheduling...
Edit: Let's say you're a small business and want to advertise on TV. You still need to actually make the ad, and while this is doable with friends, a cam and a notebook, it's much easier to just hire a production company. Check the technical requirements for Google TV Ads, it's full of tech lingo. After recording the ad, you could take the video and manage the scheduling using AdWords, though.
Ad Creation Marketplace http://services.google.com/marketplace/overview/index.html
My theory is that advertising agencies will eventually go the way of travel agencies. Big ad agencies will still exist, but they'll be forced to downsize as they face stiffer competition from the sort of decentralized indie distribution methods that make crowdsourcing work so efficiently and effectively. Look at what 99designs.com and crowdspring.com do for graphic designers, and apply that to the advertising industry; it would be fairly easy to set up a site that crowdsources advertising and rewards the actual producers with a larger share of the advertising company's advertising dollar budget. Perhaps a question of when more than if.
Less amusing examples crop up in Gibson's Neuromancer (disinformation in an ersatz news format being used to cause a riot) and Vinge's Rainbow's End (subliminal information used to activate a preprogrammed behavior; see also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toxoplasma_gondii
What's interesting to me is that the current commercial message pipeline has a degree of editorial oversight, albeit a weak one; automating the process subverts that to a degree (although they'll check for basic FCC compliance), which opens the possibility for both greater creativity and for abuse. I expect this will first manifest in the form of political speech, which isn't subject to normal commercial considerations and which attracts more funding than arty experimental stuff.
Edit: Disclaimer - no relationship with Blackarrow whatsoever, just an interested observer
For the most part, billboards are old tech that needs innovation. I would be surprised if Google added something as basic as time slicing for billboard ads... that way even smaller companies could afford a visible spot on the road.
Whoever links up old advertising with new advertising will make a boatload of cash.