If developed countries can't trust each other not to spy on their diplomats where does that leave us?
I guess they should all assume they are being spied on at all times while on foreign soil, but airing that in public is likely to worsen his chance of avoiding jail time—or worse.
I'd argue that US v USSR spying during the Cold War, particularly PHOTOINT and SIGINT and other forms of technical intelligence, largely averted a global thermonuclear war. Gov v Gov spying is just another form of transparency. (obviously as a US citizen I'd prefer the US to have an edge there, but generally for something like Brazil v Argentina I don't particularly care)
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It doesn't require anything. The government didn't need Big Brother powers to play the spy game during the Cold War.It leaves us precisely where we are - developed countries have been spying on each others' diplomats and using their diplomats for spying for, well, just about ever.
US Secretary of State Henry Simpson famously said "Gentlemen don't read each other's mail" some 80 odd years ago. A quaint attitude, even back then.
In other words, the details Snowden has given are largely harmless affirmations of what everyone probably knows already. They don't cause significant harm to our diplomatic relations. They don't cause significant harm to our intelligence.
I suspect given his moves so far, he agrees with my assessment above, so the question is, what is he doing with them? I don't think that is a hard question to answer. He's making public what those in power have assumed is the case for a long time in order to send signals to all sides that he knows a lot more than he is saying. In essence he's upping the ante regarding any indictment and extradition request.
He's sending a threat to the US: Try to extradite me and maybe I will spill your secrets, real ones, not the ones hidden in plain view I have been talking about so far.
He's also sending a message to China: I know enough to be valuable.
Time will tell what happens. However this follows on "I chose Hong Kong because of their tradition of free speech and rule of law."
This totally follows his strategy of pitting the US against China, and Hong Kong against both.
They are, though, tremendously harmful to him and his purported cause - to the point that I have a very difficult time seeing this as some part of an intelligent, well-considered strategy. Should he ever end up in a US court, any hope of lenient treatment or something like an eventual presidential commutation or pardon is well out the window - you can't be both a principled defender of civil liberties and a low-grade spy. Worse is the damage to his credibility as a person acting out of conscience - he's handing his detractors a complete gimme and even giving his potential supporters serious pause. In the interview linked, William Binney straight up calls him a traitor and it's pretty tough to portray William Binney as some pliant NSA stooge.